993 
FXUS64 KMRX 031112 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
612 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

- Showers exiting, but a slight chance possible later today 
  nearest the Kentucky and West Virginia border.
  
- Better chances for widespread rainfall by the end of the week and 
  into the weekend.

- Warming trend this coming week, with high temperatures
  approaching 20 degrees above normal heading into the weekend.
  Record high temperatures forecast for most areas on Thursday. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Light showers exiting to the north at this time. Most locations
yesterday only recorded a few hundredths of an inch, with some in
the tenth to two tenths range.

Today we'll continue to dry out as the boundary lifts north and 
ridging builds in aloft. The axis of precipitation is forecast to 
remain locked to north with dry weather continuing into Wednesday.
It is possible, however, that light precipitation falls in
locations closest to the KY and WV borders today as additional
moisture moves west to east. By around Thursday, a fairly 
pronounced shortwave trough moves in to our north across the Ohio 
Valley. Model consensus now shows we may miss most of the
precipitation from this system, as the low center tracks from MO
to MI to western PA and NY. 

Thereafter, Friday and into early next week could be an active
weather pattern. The SE ridge will become suppressed by longwave 
troughing with shortwaves cycling through. Sometime during the 
weekend, possibly around late Saturday to Sunday, a frontal system
will develop eventually impacting our region. This will cool off 
temperatures for Sunday and Monday. With how warm we'll be and 
increasing humidity, we'll have to closely monitor this weekend 
for potential thunderstorm activity. Dew points will be pushing 
into the 60s this weekend, raising our instability. SPC is already
highlighting some of the weekend well west of our area as having 
a 15% chance of severe weather.

Perhaps the biggest story of the week, will be increasing warmth 
and humidity into the weekend. Today will begin another warming 
trend, with low 80s possible for many valley locations by the end 
of the week. Mid 80s aren't totally off of the table either. 
Knoxville, for example, doesn't even average 60 degrees yet for 
early March, so we'll be seeing temperatures around 20 degrees 
above normal.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge            
03-05   80(1955)       78(2022)       77(2022)       78(1955)       
03-06   82(1956)       79(2022)       79(2022)       81(1956)       
03-07   82(2000)       80(1983)       79(1956)       80(1956)       
03-08   81(2000)       78(1974)       78(2000)       79(2000)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

MVFR cigs at CHA will lift in the early afternoon with boundary 
layer mixing. An increase in wind gusts will also occur in the 
afternoon at CHA and TYS. Gusts will drop off in the evening.
Clouds are expected to increase again tonight, but likely at VFR
levels.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             69  53  78  56 /   0  10   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  72  50  77  55 /  10   0  10   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  51  76  56 /  10   0  10   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              68  46  72  49 /  20  10  10   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


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