120 
FXUS64 KMRX 032343 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
643 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 637 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

- Better chances for widespread rainfall by the end of the week
  and into early next week, along with the return of a few 
  thunderstorms.

- Warming trend this coming week, with high temperatures
  approaching 20 degrees above normal heading into the weekend.
  Record high temperatures forecast for most areas Thursday
  through Saturday. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Mostly dry conditions with a significant warming trend expected 
through Friday. This is the result of strengthening high pressure off 
the southeast coast. 

Precipitation chances begin to increase Friday, and especially into 
the weekend, as an approaching system flattens the ridge. The
frontal boundary looks like it may stall across the region 
through Tuesday, keeping chances of precip in place. Record high 
temps are currently forecast on Saturday but less confidence 
compared to the Thursday and Friday records. This is due to the 
anticipated increase in clouds and precip chances. In addition to 
rain, Saturday through Tuesday will also feature slight chance for
thunderstorms as well. Nothing really stands out at the moment 
for any potential severe threat. 

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge            
03-05   80(1955)       78(2022)       77(2022)       78(1955)       
03-06   82(1956)       79(2022)       79(2022)       81(1956)       
03-07   82(2000)       80(1983)       79(1956)       80(1956)       
03-08   81(2000)       78(1974)       78(2000)       79(2000)

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Persistent southwesterly low level flow will bring in low clouds 
later on this evening and overnight. Expect CIGS to lower to 
MVFR levels at KCHA after midnight, but guidance is pretty firmly
showing that KTYS and KTRI will remain VFR. Trended the TAFs
accordingly. Would expect all sites to return to VFR levels by
mid-morning tomorrow. Winds are forecast to remain below 10kt but
I wouldn't be surprised to see a few gusts into the low to mid
teens based on how deep mixing will be tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             52  78  57  82 /   0   0   0  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  50  76  55  79 /   0   0   0  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       51  75  55  79 /   0   0   0  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              45  71  49  77 /   0  10   0  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...CD


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