018 
FXUS64 KMRX 041114 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
614 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 611 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

- Record high temperatures are expected later this week and through 
the weekend.

- Showers and a few storms will return this weekend into early next 
week. The threat for severe storms stay well to our north and west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

Currently, a weak shortwave is moving over the Great Plains with 
ridging in the east out ahead of it. A weak surface low will develop 
and progress to the northeast into the Great Lakes towards Thursday. 
Locally, this will just produce continued southerly flow with most 
forcing or moisture staying to our north. Other than low-end chances 
in the north, the region can expect to stay dry. Another, more 
dynamic system will develop further north and west, due to a deeper, 
more negatively tilted trough and stronger jet. Much of the better 
forcing and dynamics will stay well to our north and west with 
sufficient moisture for a return of rain to our area through the 
weekend, especially on Saturday. With the upper and low-level jet 
staying north, overall shear will remain around 25 kts or less with 
instability generally around 500 to 1,000 J/kg. This will certainly 
support some chances for storms but with minimal threat for anything 
strong or severe. The threat for mountain wave winds is limited 
within both systems as the flow will be below 40 kts and also 
possibly parallel to the terrain itself. 

Aside from the showers and storms, broad southerly flow and height 
rises will push temperatures to near or above record high values 
late in the week and through the weekend. Record highs are listed 
below: 

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge            
03-05   80(1955)       78(2022)       77(2022)       78(1955)       
03-06   82(1956)       79(2022)       79(2022)       81(1956)       
03-07   82(2000)       80(1983)       79(1956)       80(1956)       
03-08   81(2000)       78(1974)       78(2000)       79(2000)

Models are indicating another deep trough to our northwest early 
next week, likely producing severe weather chances somewhere in the 
central U.S. However, the result for our area will be additional 
chances for rain and southerly flow keeping temperatures well above 
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

MVFR cigs have spread into all sites. Cigs will return to VFR in
the late morning to early afternoon. Cigs may return late in the
period at CHA and TYS, mainly at low VFR levels. Potential for 
fog at TRI tonight if clouds do not spread in there. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             77  57  81  58 /   0   0  10   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  75  55  80  58 /   0   0  10   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       74  55  78  57 /   0   0  10   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              72  50  76  54 /   0   0  10   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...DGS


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