843 
FXUS64 KMRX 042356 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
656 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 640 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

- Very warm for the period, with high temperatures near or
  exceeding daily records at times.

- Showers and a few storms will return this weekend. The chance 
  of severe storms still looks low at this time. 

- Another significant round of showers and possible thunderstorms
  may arrive by the end of the period Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

We continue to be under the influence of an upper ridge extending
across the southeastern CONUS. Upper level short wave energy 
skirting by to our northwest may brush our northwestern fringe 
counties with a a shower later today or Thursday, but overall it 
will be dry and warm across the area. High temperatures Thursday 
are expected to be near or even exceed the daily record highs for 
the date. The very warm theme is expected to continue for much of 
the forecast period, with record highs looking to be under threat 
Friday and Saturday and possibly again early in the work week, 
although the amount of cloud cover and precipitation 
coverage/timing will matter. Record highs are listed below: 

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge            
03-05   80(1955)       78(2022)       77(2022)       78(1955)       
03-06   82(1956)       79(2022)       79(2022)       81(1956)       
03-07   82(2000)       80(1983)       79(1956)       80(1956)       
03-08   81(2000)       78(1974)       78(2000)       79(2000) 
03-09   82(2009)       82(1925)       79(2016)       80(1974)       
03-10   81(2009)       81(2016)       82(2016)       81(2016)       
03-11   81(2006)       81(2006)       78(2006)       80(1990)  

As for precipitation, moisture will be increasing and there may be 
enough weak instability for isolated to scattered weak convection on 
Friday, although most locations will stay precipitation free. A more 
significant chance for precipitation will arrive during the weekend 
as a stronger short wave moves across the Great Lakes region and 
briefly flattens the upper ridge. A weakening cold front will 
advance toward our area from the northwest, but is unlikely to push 
all the way through our area before retreating north. The better 
forcing and low level jet with this system are expected to stay well 
to our north and west, but we will likely see some modest convective 
energy and enough forcing/moisture for widespread showers and 
scattered thunderstorms. LREF data suggests only around a 10 to 20% 
chance of seeing at least 500 J/kg SBCAPE and 30+kts of 0-500mb bulk 
shear together, so right now severe chances still look low. However, 
we will have to monitor how this system unfolds for possible 
increases in the severe threat. 

How quickly the front moves back to our north will affect the amount 
of precipitation coverage for Monday into Tuesday, but the NBM keeps 
a chance for showers around both days.  Models are indicating there 
may be a more dynamic system approaching by the end of the period on 
Wednesday, with another round of showers and possibly thunderstorms. 
This system will bear watching, but is still much too far out to 
have any confidence in the timing or details. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category at all
sites, with two caveats. Lack of pattern change and continued 
moist southerly low level flow leads me to believe there's a 
possibility more MVFR CIGS develop tonight despite guidance not
being as bullish. Confidence is low so will stick with SCT020-030
bases at all sites for now. The other caveat is that some 
guidance does develop some fog at KTRI tonight. Kept a few hours 
of 4SM in the TAF due to some high res guidance showing fog 
development, and low temps being below crossover temps tonight,
but high clouds may limit development. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail. Winds will be a bit gusty tomorrow as well,
especially at KTYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             55  81  58  83 /   0  10   0  30 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  54  79  58  82 /   0  10   0  20 
Oak Ridge, TN                       53  78  58  81 /   0  10   0  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              48  75  54  78 /   0  10   0  20 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)