749 
FXUS64 KMRX 051111 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
611 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

- High temperatures near or above daily records are expected today 
through most of the period. 

- Showers and a few storms will return Friday through the weekend 
with the best coverage being on Saturday. Chances for strong to 
severe storms still remain limited in our area.

- Another dynamic system is expected early to mid next week with 
chances for showers and storms again. This system will be worth 
watching. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Currently, a weak system/shortwave is tracking to our northwest with 
showers and storms ongoing. Locally, this has just led to southerly 
flow and continually milder temperatures. This system will track off 
to the east with moisture sufficient for low-end rain chances in the 
north later today and into the evening. But the bigger story will be 
continuation of the recent warming trend as southerly flow and 
height rises are expected. By Friday, a deeper trough and stronger 
low will be noted over the Great Plains with continued southerly 
flow and height rises across the region. Moisture and instability 
will be sufficient for isolated to maybe scattered showers and 
storms on Friday. But Saturday is when better coverage is expected 
as divergence from the upper jet approaches from the north. Overall, 
the latest data suggests MLCAPE to be around 500 to 1,000 J/kg but 
with shear of 30 kts or less. This could support an isolated 
stronger storm, but the overall forcing and 850mb flow remain 
notably weaker than places to the north. Unseasonably warm 
temperatures remain a big focus with Saturday potentially limiting 
daytime heating due to shower and storm coverage. 

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge            
03-05   80(1955)       78(2022)       77(2022)       78(1955)       
03-06   82(1956)       79(2022)       79(2022)       81(1956)       
03-07   82(2000)       80(1983)       79(1956)       80(1956)     

By Sunday, the boundary associated with the system to the north will 
move into the region, keeping chances for showers and storms in the 
area but likely focused further south. This will also moderate 
temperatures down from the more abnormal highs of the previous days. 
Heading into next week, another trough will deepen and track to our 
north and west, leading to another increase in temperatures, 
followed by a return of showers and storms. Currently, the better 
forcing and dynamics still remain to our north and west but not as 
far away as with the first system. There may be a slightly higher 
chance of strong or severe storms, but model guidance is highly 
uncertain at this time. The boundary will be pulled back further 
north ahead of the system, but it remains uncertain how quickly the 
front will be pulled north. Regardless, more record high 
temperatures are likely on these days:

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge 
03-09   82(2009)       82(1925)       79(2016)       80(1974)       
03-10   81(2009)       81(2016)       82(2016)       81(2016)       
03-11   81(2006)       81(2006)       78(2006)       80(1990)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through this TAF period. Winds will
increase and become gusty at TYS this afternoon, possibly at TRI
and CHA as well but confidence is lower at those sites. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             81  58  83  63 /  10  10  30  30 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  78  57  82  63 /  10  10  20  20 
Oak Ridge, TN                       78  57  82  63 /  10  10  20  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              75  53  79  57 /  10  10  20  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...DGS


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