478 
FXUS64 KMRX 100700
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
200 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 153 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

- Warmer temperatures this week with highs mainly in the 50s and
  60s in the Tennessee Valley. Highs Tuesday will be around 15 
  degrees above normal.

- Precipitation chances return Tuesday night/Wednesday, then 
  again late in the week with rain being the predominant 
  precipitation type.

- Mountain Wave High Wind Event possible for Saturday night and
  Sunday. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

A mild SW low level flow will develop today as a low pressure system 
crosses the Great Lakes, and a high pressure system is located near 
FL. Channeling of the SW winds up the TN Valley could create some 
gusty conditions this afternoon. The stronger warm advection today 
will bring high temps well above normal, mainly in the 60s with some 
low 70s around Chattanooga. The approach of a cold front will bring 
increasing cloud through the day, with a chance of rain arriving 
around midnight. Forcing isn't strong with the nearly zonal 
mid/upper flow, and is mostly associated with isentropic lift 
through the low levels. Thus, QPF will likely be light, around a 
tenth to a quarter inch in most spots. 

Temperatures will be cooler behind the front, but not dramatically 
so as the midlevel pattern remains fairly flat and nearly zonal. 
Mostly dry weather will continue through Friday, then the next 
chance of rain arrives on Saturday a a southern stream shortwave 
trough traverses the southern Conus. This could be a fairly dynamic 
system with a strong southerly flow ahead of it, suggesting a 
potential for mountain waves in the Saturday night time frame. If 
the system develops as a closed low as depicted by the GFS, rain 
chance will linger into Sunday.

Dry and mild conditions return for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 153 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Calm this morning with relatively clear skies or high cloud cover.
Clouds build in and lower later in the day with possible MVFR at 
TYS and TRI towards the latter part of the TAF and at CHA later 
this morning. SWly gusts around 20KT possible at TYS this 
afternoon. Rain from a cold front nears TRI towards the last 
couple hours of the TAF period. PROB30 added, as well as depiction
of a chance of LLWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  51  63  35 /   0  80  50   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  68  47  57  30 /   0  90  30   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       67  46  57  30 /   0  90  20   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              61  42  51  25 /   0  80  10   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)