551 
FXUS64 KMRX 052350 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
650 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 637 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

- Very warm for much of the period, with high temperatures 
  approaching or exceeding daily records at times over the next 
  several days.

- Showers and a few storms will return Friday through the weekend
  with the best coverage being late Saturday into Saturday night.
  A few strong to severe storms will be possible but the chance 
  for severe storms still looks limited in our area.

- Another, possibly more dynamic, system is expected by mid week 
  with additional showers and storms. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

We continue to be under the influence of an upper ridge extending
across the southeastern CONUS. Upper level short wave energy is 
skirting by to our northwest today and a few spots will see a 
shower, but most locations will stay dry and it will be warm 
across the area. The temperature at TRI is already near the record
high for this date as of 1 PM EST. The very warm theme is 
expected to continue for much of the forecast period, with record 
highs looking to be under threat Friday and Saturday and possibly 
again during the Monday through Wednesday period, although the 
amount of cloud cover and precipitation coverage/timing will 
matter. Record highs for the warmer days are listed below: 

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge            
03-05   80(1955)       78(2022)       77(2022)       78(1955)       
03-06   82(1956)       79(2022)       79(2022)       81(1956)       
03-07   82(2000)       80(1983)       79(1956)       80(1956)       
  
03-09   82(2009)       82(1925)       79(2016)       80(1974)       
03-10   81(2009)       81(2016)       82(2016)       81(2016)       
03-11   81(2006)       81(2006)       78(2006)       80(1990)  

As for precipitation, moisture will be gradually increasing and 
models suggest there will be enough instability for isolated to 
scattered showers and a few storms on Friday, although most 
locations will stay precipitation free. A more significant chance 
for precipitation will arrive during the weekend as a stronger short 
wave moves across the Great Lakes region and flattens the upper 
ridge. A weakening cold front will advance toward our area from the 
northwest and will push into our area Saturday night. The better 
forcing and low level jet with this system are expected to stay well 
to our north and west, but we will likely see some modest convective 
energy and enough forcing/moisture for widespread showers and 
scattered thunderstorms. Latest model soundings generally show 
MLCAPE less than 1000 J/kg and effective shear less than 30kts as 
the convection moves in. While a few storms may become strong to 
severe late Saturday or Saturday night with damaging winds the 
primary threat, the overall chance for severe storms still looks to 
be on the low side. However, we will have to monitor how this system 
unfolds for possible increases in the severe threat. 

With the front in no hurry to exit our area Sunday, additional 
showers and possibly thunderstorms can be expected especially south 
and east closer to the boundary which will likely stall just to our 
southeast Sunday night. Not much drying will occur for early in the 
week, and the NBM keeps scattered showers and a few thunderstorms 
around both days. Models are indicating there may be a more dynamic 
system approaching near the end of the period Wednesday into 
Thursday, with another round of showers and possibly thunderstorms. 
This system will bear watching for the possibility of strong to 
severe storms, but models are not in good agreement and it is still 
much too far out to have any confidence in the timing or details.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

VFR conditions should prevail overnight, but persistent southerly
moist flow may bring some MVFR CIGS to KCHA towards daybreak. Not
confident enough in the occurrence to include in the TAFs at this
time so will just stick with a mention of SCT020. Otherwise, some
SCT SHRA should develop towards midday or early afternoon. 
Uncertainties about coverage before 00z tomorrow evening remain, 
so have limited it to just VCSH at KCHA and KTRI for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             78  58  83  63 /  10   0  30  30 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  77  56  81  62 /  20  10  20  20 
Oak Ridge, TN                       78  56  81  62 /  20  10  20  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              77  53  78  56 /  20  10  20  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...CD


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