309 
FXUS64 KMRX 060546
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1246 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1242 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

- Record high temperatures are expected today and Saturday and then 
  again early to mid next week. 

- A system will bring showers and storms to the region this
  weekend. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe 
  Saturday into Saturday night with damaging winds as the primary 
  threat. 

- Showers and storms will return early to mid next week with
  limited severe chances.  

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Currently, a shortwave is moving away from our area to the northeast 
with a deepening trough noted across the Rockies. Locally, ridging 
remains in place, continuing the record warmth seen in recent days. 
As this trough ejects into the Great Plains, a deepening surface low 
will track into the upper Mississippi River Valley and eventually 
into the Great Lakes by Saturday. Out ahead of this system, ridging 
and southerly flow will continue to push temperatures higher, with 
many seeing values in the 80s on Friday and Saturday, on par with 
records: 

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge                 
03-06   82(1956)       79(2022)       79(2022)       81(1956)       
03-07   82(2000)       80(1983)       79(1956)       80(1956)   
  
Aside from record heat, the focus will be on increasing rain chances 
as moisture returns to the region, albeit still limited on Friday. 
By Saturday, however, moisture will be more expansive and coincident 
with the cold front associated with the low approaching the Ohio 
River Valley. The better forcing and instability remain to our 
southwest and also to our north, but guidance continues to suggest 
MLCAPE reaching 500 to 1,000 J/kg area-wide and with deep-layer 
shear potentially reaching 35 kts. The latest trend also shows less 
coverage during the day on Saturday with a potential line arriving 
later in the afternoon or after sunset. The lessened daytime 
coverage will allow better heating, but if a line arrives later, 
instability will be more limited. The latest trends and depicted 
storm mode continue to suggest marginal severe potential, focused on 
damaging winds. However, this will remain highly dependent on timing 
and overall instabilty. By Sunday, this frontal boundary ends up 
stalling along or just north of our northern border, keeping chances 
for showers and storms elevated through the day. This will also 
moderate temperatures back below record values. 

By Monday, troughing will flatten out more, leading to a return of 
more zonal flow to our area. The frontal boundary will also be 
pulled back northward, increasing southerly flow and allowing for 
another rise in temperatures back into record territory: 

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

03-09   82(2009)       82(1925)       79(2016)       80(1974)       
03-10   81(2009)       81(2016)       82(2016)       81(2016)       
03-11   81(2006)       81(2006)       78(2006)       80(1990)  

By Tuesday, a closed low will move out of Mexico into the southern 
Plains with its downstream jet merging with flow to the north. This 
will also produce another deepening surface low that follows a track 
similar to the first one. The boundary pulled north will gradually 
track towards our area, leading to another increase in showers and 
storms. As with the first system, the better upper support remains 
to the north and west, but the front may be sufficient for another 
chance of strong to marginally severe storms mid-week. This will be 
worth keeping an eye on, but there is currently no notable risk in 
our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

An isolated shower or two is possible tomorrow late afternoon into 
the evening hours, but not confident in impacts directly over the 
terminals, so maintaining prior shift forecast as persistence. VFR 
is expected to prevail otherwise, though there's a low probability
for MVFR CIGs near KCHA around daybreak. Winds will be light,
though a gust to 15 knots is conceivable during the afternoon, 
especially at KTYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             83  63  82  61 /  30  30  60  80 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  81  62  81  61 /  20  20  60  80 
Oak Ridge, TN                       81  62  80  60 /  20  20  70  80 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              78  56  79  58 /  20  10  60  80 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...Wellington


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