FOUS11 KWBC 060905
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Mar 06 2026 - 12Z Mon Mar 09 2026


...Rockies, Central/Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
Days 1-2...

Full-latitude trough with the axis approaching the Four Corners
early this morning will continue to promote lee-side cyclogenesis
from the southern High Plains up through western/central KS and
eastern Neb/western Iowa today. Pacific and western Gulf moisture
wrapping around the lee-side low will continue across the CO
Rockies which are under the trough today with snow levels dropping
to around 5000ft. Day 1 snow probs for >6" additional snow after
12Z are 40-90% across the CO Rockies and the higher ranges through
central WY.

Those low snow levels will allow snow accumulation on the central
High Plains this afternoon west of the low track. Decent TROWAL
development from the strengthening low will allow fgen bands of
snow to form, first over the Denver metro, then extending northeast
from there across western Neb up into SD today. 00Z HREF mean snow
rate reaches 1"/hr over the Palmer Divide this afternoon and over
the eastern edge of the Neb Panhandle this evening.
Filling/weakening of the low then brings down the banded snow
threat for eastern SD and southern MN overnight. However,
redevelopment as the low approaches Lake Superior brings about
renewed banded snow threats to the northern WI/MN border, far
northern WI, and the western U.P. late tonight into Saturday. Day 2
snow probs for >2" are limited to around the Porcupine Mtns into
the Keweenaw Peninsula.

Mixed precip is expected near the low track today with Day 1 PWPF
for >0.1" ice 20-40% over southwestern to central MN.


...Northeast...
Days 1/2...

Shortwave trough over lower Upstate NY early this morning shifts
off Cape Cod by midday with ongoing freezing rain NW of Boston
lingering this morning. WAA ahead of the low crossing northern MI
tonight brings light precip to northern New England late tonight
into Saturday. Residual cold surface air brings a freezing rain
threat to the White Mtns of NH through western/northern Maine. Day
1.5 PWPF for >0.1" is 40-70% through this region.


...WA Cascades...
Day 3...

Powerful shortwave trough rounding a southern AK low directs
elevated Pacific moisture through WA on Sunday. Snow levels rise on
the WA Cascades to around 5000ft Saturday night before dropping to
around 4000ft Sunday under height falls. Day 3 PWPF for >6" snow is
40-80% above Snoqualmie Pass level on the northern WA Cascades.


Jackson



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