MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 061950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061950 
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-062215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0147
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...central/northeast KS...southeast NE...southwest
IA...and northwest MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 061950Z - 062215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Monitoring for increasing severe potential this afternoon.
Initial threat should be large hail and damaging winds, with a
gradually increasing tornado threat. A watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...Increasingly agitated boundary-layer cumulus is evident
over north-central KS into southeast MO -- within a zone of
low-level confluence immediately ahead of a cold front. Continued
diurnal heating amid lower 60s dewpoints should erode remaining
inhibition and favor isolated storm development over the next couple
hours. Around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 50-60 kt of effective shear will
promote storm organization, though generally weak large-scale
forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on individual storm longevity
initially. Nevertheless, this environment will favor discrete
supercells with a risk of large hail and damaging gusts. With time,
storms will spread/develop east-northeastward, where sheltered
boundary-layer moisture and larger clockwise-curved hodographs
(aided by a 50-kt low-level jet sampled by TOP 18Z sounding) will
favor an increasing tornado risk later this afternoon into tonight. 

While timing of thunderstorm development/maturation remains
uncertain, current thinking is that a watch will likely be needed
this afternoon.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 03/06/2026


ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   40129754 40569695 41119640 41449597 41599526 41579447
            41289398 40549379 39939399 39039492 38309623 37989703
            37849769 37929829 38109877 38319905 38889911 39419874
            39869804 40129754 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

$$
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