938 
FXUS64 KMRX 062355
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
655 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

- Record high temperatures may be exceeded today and Saturday and
  will be approached or exceeded again early to mid next week. 

- A system will bring showers and storms to the region this 
  weekend. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe 
  Saturday into Saturday night with damaging winds as the primary 
  threat. 

- Showers and storms chances will increase again by mid week with
  severe chances currently looking low.  

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

We continue to be under the influence of an upper ridge extending 
across the southeastern CONUS. There is enough instability around 
today for isolated showers and storms, but most locations will be 
dry for the remainder of today. After records were broken yesterday, 
record highs are again likely exceeded today. The very warm theme
is expected to continue for much of the period into mid week, 
with record highs looking to be under threat again Saturday and 
likely to be approached or exceeded again during the Monday 
through Wednesday period, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Record
highs for the warmer days are listed below: 

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge            
03-06   82(1956)       79(2022)       79(2022)       81(1956)       
03-07   82(2000)       80(1983)       79(1956)       80(1956)       
  
03-09   82(2009)       82(1925)       79(2016)       80(1974)       
03-10   81(2009)       81(2016)       82(2016)       81(2016)       
03-11   81(2006)       81(2006)       78(2006)       80(1990)  

A better chance for showers and storms will arrive later Saturday 
into Saturday night as a short wave moves across the Great Lakes 
region which flattens the upper ridge, and a weak cold front pushes 
southeast into our area.  Guidance overall continues to suggest 
MLCAPE values will generally be reaching the 500 to 1000 J/kg range 
area wide and with deep-layer shear reaching 25 to 35 kts ahead of 
the convection that moves in late Saturday or early Saturday night, 
although a nighttime arrival would allow CAPE values to trend lower 
before onset. CAMS generally tend to support the idea of a weakening 
line moving in sometime late Saturday or early Saturday night well 
out ahead of the front followed by additional showers and perhaps 
thunderstorms later in the night albeit with less convective energy 
to work with, and right now the threat of severe storms still looks 
marginal with damaging winds the primary threat as the initial line 
moves in. However, this still has time to change based on timing and 
how much instabilty will actually be available.

The weak frontal boundary will still be making slow progress 
southeastward over our area Sunday, keeping chances for showers and 
storms elevated. This will also moderate temperatures back below 
record values for Sunday. Some drying may be working in at least to 
northwestern counties by the end of the day as the front edges to 
our southeast.  

Monday looks drier especially north, although proximity to the 
stalled front will keep chances for showers and storms a bit higher 
south. By Tuesday, a closed low will move out of Mexico into the 
southern Plains and will eventually track across the Gulf states 
Wednesday and Thursday. The stationary front to our southeast will 
move back north Tuesday, then a cold front will move through our 
area sometime around the Wednesday/Wednesday night time frame. The 
better upper support looks to stay off to our north and west, but 
the forcing with the front may be sufficient for another chance of 
strong to marginally severe storms mid-week. This will be worth 
keeping an eye on, but uncertainty is still high on the details with 
this system that far out. 

Friday currently looks drier and mild behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

There is a chance for MVFR CIGs tomorrow morning at CHA, otherwise
VFR conditions are expected. Isolated showers on radar are
dissipating. We may have to watch for some low level wind shear in
the early morning hours. Southwesterly winds will increase well
after daybreak tomorrow morning especially at TYS. Late tomorrow 
afternoon, a line of showers and storms will approach from the 
west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             63  81  61  74 /  30  60  80  70 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  62  81  60  71 /  10  60  90  70 
Oak Ridge, TN                       62  79  60  70 /  10  60  80  60 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              56  79  59  66 /  10  50  90  70 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...McD


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