FOUS30 KWBC 100811
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

...Transverse Range of Southern California...
The 10/00Z suite of global and ensemble guidance still suggests 
that a modest atmospheric river associated with a Pacific cold 
front advancing inland across central and southern CA later
tonight/early Wednesday morning. The latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF 
still suggest rather modest IVT magnitudes with the event. Any
concern for excessive rainfall arise during a fairly small window
when the moisture plume becomes oriented normal to the axis of the
Transverse Range. One to 2 inches of rainfall shown by the 
GFS/ECMWF could be closer to 3 inches in spots where orographic 
upslope contributes additional lift. The signals of that happening
for a long enough duration for problems to develop remain low...so
held off on introducing a Marginal Risk area again. Even so...an 
upgrade may still be needed especially given some of the runoff 
sensitivities with burn scars and the sloped terrain.

Bann


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)