MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 071225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071224 
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-071400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0164
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...Parts of western/central AR into extreme northeast TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 22...

Valid 071224Z - 071400Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 22 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado and localized damaging wind threat may
continue through dawn.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell has recently produced an
apparent tornado in southwest AR (Nevada County). While some
weakening and veering of low-level flow has been noted in the KSHV
and KLZK VWPs, low-level shear/SRH remains more than sufficient for
tornado potential with any sustained supercell, given the presence
of moderate buoyancy and a seasonably warm/moist boundary layer.
Aside from the tornadic supercell, other storms across southwest AR
have been relatively disorganized, though it remains possible that
an additional tornadic supercell may evolve out of convection within
the prefrontal warm-advection regime.   

Farther northwest, a cold front is surging southeastward across
west-central/northwest AR. As this front impinges upon the favorable
downstream environment and ongoing warm-sector convection, at least
a brief uptick in damaging-wind and brief tornado potential will be
possible across parts of central/northern AR, before the threat ends
from northwest to southeast later this morning. 

Some severe threat is expected to persist beyond the 14Z expiration
time of WW 22. Local watch extension and/or downstream watch
issuance is possible, depending on short-term trends regarding
convective intensity and organization as storms approach
central/eastern AR.

..Dean/Gleason.. 03/07/2026

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   36289244 36279158 36249148 36139068 35519045 34289114
            33549171 33269202 33159270 33129321 33159359 33309400
            33649471 36289244 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

$$
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