095 
FXUS64 KMRX 072338
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
638 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 632 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

- A line of showers and storms is expected to move through the
  area late afternoon through the evening hours. The most likely
  timing is between 5 to 10 PM EST. Isolated damaging wind gusts 
  are possible, especially in western areas. 

- Off and on chances for showers and storms continue Sunday
  through Wednesday, with Wednesday evening having the best chance
  for storms, some of which could be strong.  

- Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Sunday, but the well
  above normal temperatures make a return Monday through Wednesday.
  

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Forecast for record breaking daily high temperatures remains mostly 
on track, particularly for central and northern areas(already 
surpassed TRI). Slightly enhanced cloud cover atop the southern 
valley has CHA a tad behind hourly NBM trends, and it looks 
increasingly likely temps will be shy of the daily record there. 

Regarding the convective activity, showers and storms are currently 
progressing into central KY/TN. This activity is being driven by 
an outflow boundary from previous nights convection as well as 
increasing mid to upper level divergence & vorticity ahead of a 
shortwave trough and associated cold front further upstream. 

CAMs remain in pretty good agreement that most likely timing will be 
between 5 and 10 PM EST. As the convection moves through the region 
a southwesterly H85 jet between 30-35kts will aid in effective bulk 
shear near 35kts and 0-1km shear near 20-25kts. Latest model derived 
soundings depict SBCAPE values 800-1000J/kg. Primary hazard 
associated with this activity will be strong to damaging winds, 
followed by small hail. While a brief spin-up cannot be totally 
ruled out, the most likely location for this would be along the 
Plateau where terrain influence could help overcome unfavorable LCL 
heights right along the leading edge of the convection. Overall, the 
most favorable locations for strong to damaging wind gusts will be 
along and west of the Interstate 75 corridor as HREF mean SBCAPE 
values fall rather quickly as the line progresses into the 
Appalachians. 

Light rain is possible at times throughout the overnight and even 
into Sunday as the cold front then progresses across the region, but 
no significant weather is expected during this time. Sunday temperatures
will run cooler alongside light and westerly winds.

The cooler temperatures will be short lived as we rebound to well 
above normal temperatures among increasing H5 heights Monday. The 
chance for showers and a few storms will return with a southern 
stream shortwave Monday night into Tuesday. A brief break in
precip is expected before focus turns to a more amplified system 
bringing a return for the chance of strong to potentially severe 
storm activity late Wednesday. Western and central Tennessee 
Valley and portions of the Cumberland Plateau are highlighted 
within the Day 5 SPC Convective Outlook. A stronger LLJ (40-45kts) 
will promote a chance for gusty winds across the east Tennessee 
mountains and adjacent foothills as well. A drastic cooling trend
in the realm of 30 degrees is expected post FROPA Thursday. Drier
conditions expected to end the forecast period. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

A line of mostly showers has moved into the region. The best
chance for lightning will be near CHA over the next couple of
hours. Rain will continue through around midnight for most of the
region. Another round of showers will be possible tomorrow
afternoon. Late tonight through tomorrow morning, MVFR CIGs are
likely, possibly continuing into the afternoon hours before
clearing out late afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             62  73  56  78 / 100  50  10  30 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  61  70  54  76 /  90  60  10  20 
Oak Ridge, TN                       60  69  52  76 /  90  50  10  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              58  67  51  72 /  90  60  10  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...McD


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