630 
FXUS64 KMRX 080631
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
131 AM EST Sun Mar 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1257 AM EST Sun Mar 8 2026

- Low confidence on additional rain showers through this morning.
  A few scattered showers this afternoon. Rain chances to return
  Monday night into midweek.

- Then, a gradual warming trend is expected early in the workweek
  to Wednesday with near record temperatures possible again. 

- A dynamic system will impact the eastern U.S. Wednesday to Wednesday
  night. The severe threat is uncertain in our area, but this 
  time period is worth watching. 

- Light snow is possible in the higher elevations by Thursday
  morning, followed by a brief return of cool and drier
  conditions.
  

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 AM EST Sun Mar 8 2026

Currently, a shortwave is to our north with the upper jet extending 
to our northwest. At the surface, a frontal boundary has moved past 
the Ohio River Valley. Showers continue to linger behind the initial 
line, and this same trend will continue as the front arrives by mid 
day. Instability will remain mainly south of our area with those 
locations also being where rain lingers the longest as the front 
progresses. This will also help to moderate temperatures back below 
record high values of recent days. By Monday, the flow aloft will 
become more zonal with another system tracking along southern 
Canada. Southerly flow from this system will lead to WAA and help 
pull the front back northward. A closed low will also move into 
northern Mexico with the left exit region of its downstream jet 
leading to upper divergence and a return of rain chances Monday 
night into Tuesday. This will also further increase temperatures, 
especially if coverage of showers and storms is lessened. 

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge
03-09   82(2009)       82(1925)       79(2016)       80(1974)       
03-10   81(2009)       81(2016)       82(2016)       81(2016)       
03-11   81(2006)       81(2006)       78(2006)       80(1990)  

Later on Tuesday into Tuesday night, the closed low will merge with 
a deepening trough to the north with the trough's downstream jet 
strengthening. This will lead to rapid deepening of a surface low as 
it moves into the Great Lakes region towards Wednesday. This will be 
a dynamic system with strong upper divergence and 850mb jet in 
excess of 50 kts. This will likely lead to a broad warm sector and a 
high shear lower CAPE environment with storms firing ahead of the 
approaching cold front. For our area, the question continues to be 
timing, which the latest model guidance shows to be slightly earlier 
than earlier runs did. At this time, the area of potential strong to 
severe convection remains broad because of this timing uncertainty. 
An earlier timing would lead to greater instability and overall 
severe chances in our area. Many of the top CIPS Analogs suggest the 
overall track to be supportive of severe weather in our area. 
Regardless, this time is one of concern for a severe weather event 
in the eastern U.S. with uncertainty as to the extent of impact in 
our area. 

Behind the front, cooler air arrives by Thursday with even a 
transition to light snow in the higher elevations, depending on how 
quickly moisture moves out. High pressure will then support drier 
conditions with gradual height rises leading to an increase in 
temperatures by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 AM EST Sun Mar 8 2026

Most of the rain has evaporated from the area, and most high 
resolution guidance keep appreciable rain low for the remainder of 
the night. There's potential for scattered showers tomorrow, so 
included PROB30s at TYS and TRI where low confidence exists. High 
probability for MVFR ceilings for much of the period, with a more 
pessimistic view this TAF set. There's a chance the clouds scatter 
by 00z, but low confidence on this scenario. Light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             73  56  78  61 /  50  10  30  60 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  70  54  76  58 /  60  10  20  50 
Oak Ridge, TN                       69  52  76  58 /  50  10  20  50 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              67  51  72  51 /  60  10  10  20 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...Wellington


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