ACUS02 KWNS 080615
SWODY2
SPC AC 080613

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CST Sun Mar 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from the
Arklatex into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...ArkLaTex and Lower MS/TN Valleys...

A low-amplitude mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the
southern Plains to the TN Valley through Monday afternoon/evening.
In the absence of stronger height falls, little surface cyclogenesis
is expected. Nevertheless, deep layer southwesterly flow will
support persistent warm advection regime. Rich boundary-layer
moisture (surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F) will be in
place across the Lower MS Valley beneath steep midlevel lapse rates.
Pockets of stronger heating of the moist warm sector will support
MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg (particularly across southern AR/northern
LA into MS). Supercell wind profiles are noted in forecast soundings
amid 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes owing to strong mid/upper
flow. Forecast hodographs also become elongated/straight above 2-3 km.

Large-scale ascent will remain modest and may limit storm coverage,
but most CAMs guidance suggest at least a few storms will develop
within the warm advection regime. Convection will mainly pose a risk
for large hail (with some potential for hail up to 2 inch diameter)
and localize strong wind gusts. Given moist low-levels and modestly
enlarged/curved low-level hodographs, a tornado or two also may be
possible, but is not expected to be the main hazard.

..Leitman.. 03/08/2026

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