ACUS03 KWNS 081004
SWODY3
SPC AC 081003

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...AND PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY OF THE WEEK REFERENCES

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to widespread severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday
from the southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley
vicinity. All severe hazards are possible.

...Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley Vicinity...

A complex scenario is expected to unfold on Tuesday and Tuesday
night across a broad warm sector from the southern Plains into the
Mid-MS Valley and Lake Michigan vicinity. An initially split-flow
upper level pattern will see an upper low and attendant trough over
northwest Mexico lift northeast across the southern Rockies into the
adjacent High Plains. As this occurs, a northern stream upper trough
will deepen over the northern/central Plains, with the two systems
merging by the end of the period. This will result in substantial
mid/upper southwesterly flow streaming across the area atop strong
low-level warm advection. A broad warm sector with surface dewpoints
in the 60s F will encompass much of OK/TX/eastern KS eastward into
the Mid/Lower MS Valley and Lower OH/TN Valleys. Two areas of
deepening surface low pressure are forecast -- one across the OK/TX
Panhandle vicinity, the other across northwest MO into IA. A dryline
will extend southward from the Plains low, and a warm front will
extend west to east from southern IA into northern IL/IN during the
afternoon. After 00z, a cold front will develop southeast, becoming
positioned from southern Lake Michigan southwest to central OK.
There is some uncertainty in the position of these surface features,
but this appears to be the best estimate at this time based on
various guidance.

Some uncertainty also exists with regards to capping, particularly
across OK into parts of MO. Nevertheless, strong vertical shear atop
a very moist warm and moderately unstable airmass should support
scattered to possibly widespread severe thunderstorms. Supercell
wind profiles will support large to very large hail where discrete
convection occurs. Linear forcing along surface boundaries also may
favor linear segments, especially after dark. Tornado potential may
be maximized near the surface warm front/triple point across parts
of MO/IL and far southeast IA. Outlook areas may change some in the
coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved.

..Leitman.. 03/08/2026

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