544 
FXUS64 KMRX 081750
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
150 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 149 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

- Warming trend is expected through Wednesday with near record 
temperatures possible again. 

- A dynamic system will impact the eastern U.S. Wednesday to 
Wednesday night. The severe threat is uncertain in our area, but 
this time period is worth watching. 

- Light snow is possible in the higher elevations by Thursday
  morning, followed by a brief return of cool and drier
  conditions.
 
&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Currently overcast skies and a few weak showers, mainly across the 
Appalachians, are present as the front makes it's way across the 
region. Temperatures are not dramatically cooler behind the 
boundary, but based on upstream observations and cloud coverage have 
brought down high temperatures for today... Which are still several 
degrees above seasonal normals. As the day continues into tonight 
we'll see clouds eventually break up and we could get a short window 
of some sun peaking through at the end of the day for some. With the 
possibility of clearing skies and light wind, we could also see some 
patchy fog develop overnight, especially if the clouds clear out 
more than anticipated. 

This work week another rapid warm up is expected with increasing low 
level winds out of the south/southwest and strengthening riding in 
the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere. This will rocket 
temperatures back up to near record highs Tuesday and Wednesday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge
03-09   82(2009)       82(1925)       79(2016)       80(1974)       
03-10   81(2009)       81(2016)       82(2016)       81(2016)       
03-11   81(2006)       81(2006)       78(2006)       80(1990)  

In addition to the near record highs, this will also bring in a 
moist unstable airmass ahead of our next system, currently expected 
Wednesday into Wednesday night. A strengthening surface low drives 
out of the plains towards the Great Lakes Region being added by a 
deepening trough in the mid/upper levels. This will also induce a 
fairly strong LLJ over our region. All of this will combine to bring 
in what looks to be a pretty strong front and line of severe 
thunderstorms to the Tennessee Valley. While it's still too early to 
get into the specifics of severe ingredients...Models are generally 
trending towards evening/overnight timing of this system in the 
eastern Tennessee Valley... An overnight event, compared to a 
afternoon event can have dramatic affects on the types of severe 
weather experienced. However all modes of severe weather are still 
on the table at this time. This will be the day to keep an eye on 
for this forecast.

Regardless of the what severe weather does or does not occur 
Wednesday into Thursday everyone will experience the dramatic cool-
down for Thursday morning through Friday morning. High temperatures 
will likely drop 25 or more degrees on Wednesday compared to 
Thursday. One way to tell we're in spring is that this dramatic 
cooldown does not last very long. After a chilly start to Friday 
morning (with parts of southwest VA possibly dipping below freezing) 
we warm back up into the 60's for much of the Valley, and 70's over 
the weekend. So don't put up the winter jacket yet, but also don't 
put away the shorts either for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Low level clouds will stick around for most of the daytime hours. We 
could see some breaks, but they will be the exception rather than 
the rule. If the clouds clear out overnight we should see fog move 
in, but certainty is too low to mention in the TAFs at this time, 
and will need to see cloud coverage later this evening. Expect 
gradually improving conditions after sunrise Monday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             56  79  60  78 /  10  10  60  50 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  54  76  57  78 /  10  10  40  50 
Oak Ridge, TN                       51  76  57  77 /  10  10  40  50 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              51  71  50  76 /  10  10  10  30 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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