ACUS02 KWNS 090601
SWODY2
SPC AC 090600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...AND PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday from the
southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe
hazards are possible.

...Synopsis...

A complex scenario for severe thunderstorm potential is expected on
Tuesday and Tuesday night from the Southern Plains to the Mid-MS
Valley/southern Great Lakes vicinity. A somewhat bi-modal severe
risk appears possible within a split-flow upper level pattern. All
severe hazards appear possible, especially within a corridor across
portions of TX, and a second corridor from northern MO into
northern/central IL and northwest IN.

Expansive area of enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the
southern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes, aided by two separate
upper troughs. The first is associated with an upper low/trough
across northwest Mexico and the Southwest, which will shift east
into the southern High Plains by Wednesday. The second is a broad
but deepening upper trough moving across the northern/central Plains
toward the Upper Midwest. Two areas of low pressure are expected to
develop with the approaching of these upper systems, one over the
central/southern High Plains and the other across the Lower
MO/Mid-MS valley. A dryline/Pacific front will be oriented across
western TX, while a warm front extends west to east from near
northern MO/southeast IA into northern IL/IN. By evening, a cold
front will begin to develop southeast across KS/MO/IA/IL/IN, and the
Pacific front will shift east across central TX. These boundaries
will be the focus for scattered to widespread thunderstorm
development from late afternoon into the overnight hours.

...Mid-MO Valley to southern Great Lakes vicinity...

Capping will likely suppress convection for much of the day within a
strong warm advection regime. Surface dewpoints are expected to
climb into the low/mid-60s south of the warm front beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates. This will foster 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by peak
heating. Convection is expected to develop within the 21-00z time
frame when a 40 kt low-level jet is expected to overspread the
region. Supercell wind profiles are noted in forecast soundings,
with hodographs exhibiting enhanced low-level curvature, with
lengthened/straight hodographs above 2-3 km. Given a favorable
thermodynamic environment, large hail to 2.5 inches appears possible
with storms both within the warm sector and initial activity that
may develop within the cooler air north of the front. Furthermore,
any cells that develop within the warm sector and interact with the
front will encounter enhanced low-level shear/SRH and tornadoes
(some EF-2+) will be possible. With time during the evening,
convection will likely grow upscale into one or more
southeast-advancing linear segments near the advancing cold front.
Damaging winds will be possible with this activity overnight.

...Southern Plains vicinity...

Convection is expected to develop along the surface dryline across
western TX by mid to late afternoon. Initial supercells are possible
and could produce large hail (to around 2 inch diameter) and a
couple of tornadoes. Convection may quickly grow upscale as the
Pacific front overtakes the dryline and large-scale ascent increases
rapidly by 00z.

Uncertainty increases with northward extent across OK/KS into
southern MO/AR. These areas will be within the broad warm sector and
moderate to strongly sheared environment. However, this area will
also be between the two areas of stronger ascent. Some capping may
persist and it is unclear how convection may evolve across these areas.

..Leitman.. 03/09/2026

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