371 
FXUS64 KMRX 091734
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
134 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 133 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- Cluster of thunderstorms storms could impact Chattanooga and 
surrounding areas this evening

- A warming trend will continue through Wednesday with near record 
high temperatures again.

- Chances for showers and storms return Monday night into Tuesday 
and  then again by Wednesday night. Some storms could be strong to 
severe Wednesday night, especially near the plateau.

- Light snow is possible in the higher elevations on Thursday, 
followed by cooler and drier conditions area-wide. Then, another 
warming trend is expected through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Fog was stubborn to dissipate this morning with low level clouds 
helping to keep it in place, which has caused some locations to warm 
up rather slowly compared to others. Looking to our west we can see 
a group of thunderstorms in Arkansas which will try and make it's 
way eastward through the rest of the day. Based on CAMs and surface 
observations the storms look likely to stay closer to the 60+ dew 
point line, which should keep them mostly out of southeast 
Tennessee. BUT we could see the northern edge of these storms stay 
north of the state line and impact Chattanooga, and surrounding 
areas around (or just after) sunset. Environment north of the state 
line looks marginal for strong storms, but cannot completely rule 
out a rogue wind gust over 40mph if the storms become a bit more 
linear. Another round of much lighter showers and possibly 
thunderstorms will once again be possible along I-40 and south on 
Tuesday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge           
03-10   81(2009)       81(2016)       82(2016)       81(2016)       
03-11   81(2006)       81(2006)       78(2006)       80(1990)     

By late Tuesday, attention shifts to the northwest as the southern 
and northern jet streams merge and a strengthening surface low moves 
into the Great Lakes by Wednesday. A robust lowΓÇælevel jet and an 
expansive warm sector will extend across much of the eastern U.S. 
ahead of the systemΓÇÖs cold front. This setup continues to support 
the broad severe weather potential highlighted in recent outlooks.

Most models suggests a QLCS sweeping through the region between 
midnight and early Wednesday morning. Instability remains limited, 
generally below 250 J/kg. But there will be strong directional 
shear, especially in the lowest levels. Winds at 850 mb appear 
around 40-45 kt, which is sufficient to support a severe threat if 
adequate instability is present. The western part of the forecast 
area carries the higher risk for severe convection as instability 
decreases farther east, and will likely occur later in the night.
At this stage damaging winds look like the primary threat, but an 
isolated brief tornado remains possible.

The cold front is expected to move through around, or shortly before 
sunrise Thursday, ushering in much colder air. This should allow for 
a transition to light snow in the higher elevations. Model solutions 
vary on how long moisture lingers into the day, but there appears to 
be enough for light accumulations in the highest terrain. Otherwise, 
high pressure builds in and keeps conditions dry through the end of 
the week.

Another system will track across southern Canada Friday into the 
weekend, but its main impact locally will be a return to southerly 
flow while dry air persists. Temperatures will climb back above 
normal by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

A cluster of thunderstorms may impact KCHA after sunset tonight with 
strong winds as the primary hazard. Another round of weaker showers 
and possibly thunderstorms will move in tomorrow to impact KCHA/KTYS 
but isolated nature gives low confidence on timing of impacts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             62  78  65  81 /  70  50  10  30 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  60  77  64  81 /  60  50  30  40 
Oak Ridge, TN                       60  76  64  80 /  60  50  30  40 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              51  75  58  79 /  20  40  20  40 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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