819 
FXUS64 KMRX 100555
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
155 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 150 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- Additional showers and storms move in before sunrise, no severe 
  weather anticipated.

- A warming trend will continue through Wednesday with near record 
  high temperatures again. Breezy conditions areawide.

- Chances for showers and storms return Wednesday evening. Some storms
  could be strong to severe, especially near the Cumberland 
  plateau.

- Light snow is possible in the higher elevations on Thursday morning,
  followed by cooler and drier conditions area-wide. Then, 
  another warming trend is expected through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Additional showers and storms move into the area before sunrise. 
This activity is associated with a very weak disturbance within 
mostly zonal flow. The best coverage will occur through mid to late 
morning, then showers and storms become more isolated through the 
rest of the day as drier air moves in. No severe weather is 
anticipated with this activity. 

On Wednesday, a robust lowΓÇælevel jet and an expansive warm sector 
will extend across much of the eastern U.S. ahead of an upper-level 
trough and cold front. This setup continues to support the broad 
severe weather potential highlighted in recent outlooks. Breezy 
winds are expected ahead of the front with most areas seeing winds 
gust from 20 to 30 mph. The highest ridgetops across the east TN 
mountains will see winds gust from 30 to 40 mph.

Most models still show a QLCS sweeping through the region sometime 
between Wednesday evening and early Thursday morning. Because of the 
timing, this will help to dampen our overall severe threat as 
instability will be on the weaker side, and most likely elevated. 
Elevated, non-surface based, instability means no tornado risk. 
However, if we do maintain some surfaced-based instability, then 
there will be a low risk for an isolated, brief, tornado. This is 
due to the moderate to strongly sheared environment that will be in 
place. As of now, the main threat appears to be damaging winds as 
any stronger storm could bring higher winds down to the surface. If 
we do see any stronger storms, areas west of I-75 will have the 
better chances due to earlier arrival time.

We clear out Thursday afternoon behind the cold front. High 
temperatures are only expected to be in the lower to upper 50s, but 
this is only around 5 degrees below normal. It will feel much colder 
though due to our recent warm spell. Before precip exits, we could 
still see a few light snow showers early Thursday morning across the 
east TN and southwest VA mountains. Little to no accumulation is 
expected along with no impacts. 

We see a nice rebound in temps on Friday due to southerly return 
flow, temps will be back above normal with highs in the low to upper 
60s. Temperatures continue to warm through the weekend with temps 
climbing back into the 70s. Then, another deep trough looks to 
approach late weekend into early next week, brining more widespread 
rainfall to the area. Temperatures will then drop back down to 
around normal behind this next cold front.  


Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge           
03-10   81(2009)       81(2016)       82(2016)       81(2016)       
03-11   81(2006)       81(2006)       78(2006)       80(1990)
&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A few scattered showers appear likely in a few hours across the
southern two thirds of East Tennessee. Thunder is possible, but
not confident on where and how much to include explicitly in the
TAFs. Activity should diminish later this morning. IFR is 
possible at KCHA this morning, as high clouds depart and low 
clouds form in the wake of earlier rain. CIGs should be improving
into the late afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             78  64  81  46 /  60  20  20 100 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  77  64  81  44 /  50  30  20 100 
Oak Ridge, TN                       75  64  80  43 /  50  30  30 100 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              75  59  79  42 /  40  20  30  90 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


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