ACUS02 KWNS 100602
SWODY2
SPC AC 100600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday
from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through
the Ohio Valley vicinity.

...ArkLaTex to Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic...

A messy scenario is evident heading into Wednesday from east Texas
northeast into PA/MD/VA. A northern stream upper trough will develop
east across the Great Lakes/Midwest, while a southern stream
shortwave trough moves across TX and the Lower MS Valley. A broad
swath of strong southwesterly deep layer flow will overspread these
areas, with a particularly strong jet max across the Ohio Valley
(80-100 kt at 500 mb). At the surface, a cold front will be oriented
from southern Lower MI into central OK Wednesday morning. A
dryline/Pacific front will then extend southward across east-central
TX. A surface cyclone is expected to deepen as it moves northeast
near the international border and Lower Great Lakes through
Wednesday evening. As this occurs, the surface cold front will
develop southeast, eventually overtaking the TX dryline during the
afternoon. This front will become oriented from the Mid-Atlantic
coast to the central Gulf coast by Thursday morning.

Ahead of the surface boundaries, a broad warm sector will be in
place, with surface dewpoints into the 60s F as far north as PA. The
strongest instability will likely be focused across the Lower MS
Valley where dewpoints into the mid/upper 60s F are possible and at
least some stronger surface heating will be possible. With northward
extent, instability will decrease, but MLCAPE up to 500-1000 J/kg
will be common across the Ohio Valley into VA. One of the main
concerns/points of uncertainty precluding higher probabilities
across the Ohio Valley vicinity is possible ongoing convection
during the morning, and multiple rounds of convection within the
broad warm advection regime limiting lapse rates/instability and
greater severe potential. Nevertheless, intense deep-layer
southwesterly flow will support damaging wind potential across a
broad area and an outlook upgrade was considered for parts of
southeast OH/northeast KY/southwest PA and western/northern WV. If
enough destabilization occurs and a strongly forced line of
convection develops, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes could occur.

Further south into the ArkLaTex and Lower MS Valley vicinity, a line
of convection is expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning.
Deep-layer flow will not be as strong compared to further north, but
still more than adequate for organized convection. Lapse rates are
forecast to remain modest, but linear convection along the surging
cold front will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Some forecast
guidance suggests discrete convection could develop ahead of the
line. If this occurs, some increased risk for tornadoes will
develop, especially as storms merge with the line. However,
confidence in this scenario is low. Depending on forecast trends,
outlook upgrades could become necessary in subsequent outlooks.

..Leitman.. 03/10/2026

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