721 
FXUS64 KMRX 101822
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
222 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 221 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

-  Warm through Wednesday with near record high temperatures 
   again. Breezy conditions areawide.

- Chances for showers and storms return Wednesday evening. Some 
  storms could be strong to severe, especially near the Cumberland
  plateau.

- Cooler and drier conditions area-wide Thursday. Then, another 
  warming trend is expected through the weekend.

- Another round of showers and storms will move in by late Sunday
  or Sunday night, followed by a surge of much colder air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A few showers are around this afternoon and there still could be 
a few rumbles of thunder, although most locations will be dry this
afternoon. The very warm conditions continue today and tomorrow. 
Some records will likely be approached or exceeded Wednesday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures for Wednesday:

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge           
03-11   81(2006)       81(2006)       78(2006)       80(1990) 

A weak impulse combined with modest lingering elevated instability 
may brush mainly our northern and western half with a few showers 
and thunderstorms overnight. On Wednesday, a robust lowΓÇælevel jet 
and an expansive warm sector will extend across the region ahead of 
an approaching upper-level trough and cold front. This setup 
continues to support the low end severe weather potential for our 
area highlighted in recent outlooks. Breezy winds are expected ahead 
of the front with most areas seeing winds gust at least into the 20 
to 30 mph range, with some spots including the higher east TN 
mountains gusting from 30 to 40 mph.

Most models still show a weakening QLCS sweeping through the region 
sometime during Wednesday evening into Thursday night. With the 
timing likely near or after sunset, this will help to dampen our 
overall severe threat as instability will be on the weaker side. 
Latest model data suggests MLCAPE values will be limited (generally 
in the 250 to 500 J/kg range) ahead of the front. Shear will be 
sufficient to suggests a low end tornado concern which will be 
dependent on instability, so if we do maintain enough surfaced-based 
instability then there will be a low risk for a brief tornado. As of 
now, the main threat appears to be damaging winds as any stronger 
storms could bring higher winds down to the surface. If we do see 
any severe storms, areas west of I-75 will have the better chances 
due to earlier arrival time/more available CAPE.

The rain will be ending early Thursday, and there may be a few 
snowflakes mixing in over the highest mountains before the 
precipitation ends as colder and drier air pushes in behind the 
front.  High temperatures will be a bit below normal for a change, 
topping out in the 50s in most valley locations. 

The cooldown will be brief as the surface high slides to our east 
and low level flow again turns more southerly Friday.  Highs Friday 
will generally be in the 60s across the valley. The warming trend 
will then continue into the weekend with highs in the 70s common 
both days. 

While the details are still uncertain that far out, models indicate 
another deep trough and a stronger cold front will be moving in 
sometime around Sunday night with another round of showers and 
storms. This system will bear watching for possible mountain wave 
winds depending on the low level jet orientation as well as the 
potential for severe storms. Deep layer shear will likely be 
significant but of course right now there are questions about how 
much instability will be present (which will also depend partially 
on timing). Current LREF data suggests a very low chance (around 10% 
to 20%) of 30+ kts of deep layer shear combining with 500+ J/kg of 
CAPE ahead of the front, but of course CAPE is often underforecast 
this far out. 

Drier and sharply colder air will push in behind this front for 
Monday and Tuesday, with temperatures below normal to end out the 
forecast period.  



&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The low clouds will be lifting this afternoon, although a shower
may still affect the terminals especially TRI and TYS over the
next several hours. Additional showers will be around later 
tonight/early Wed, especially TRI, with possible MVFR conditions.
MVFR level cigs look likely to be predominant at CHA for several 
hours late tonight into early Wednesday as well. Winds will begin
to pick up and become gusty from the south and southwest by the
end of the period. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             65  81  45  58 /  20  20 100  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  64  80  43  53 /  30  20 100  20 
Oak Ridge, TN                       64  79  42  55 /  30  20 100  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              59  80  40  50 /  20  20 100  40 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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