MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 110039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110039 
KSZ000-OKZ000-110245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0197
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Areas affected...extreme northern Oklahoma across south-central into
east-central Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 34...

Valid 110039Z - 110245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 34
continues.

SUMMARY...A corridor of damaging hail and wind potential is evident
along the boundary into south-central and eastern Kansas.

DISCUSSION...Cells continue to evolve out of northwest OK and now
approaching the Wichita area. These storms are riding along the
boundary/instability gradient, where shear and instability remain
very favorable for damaging hail. Upstream over central OK, the 00Z
OUN sounding showed 2500 J/kg MLCAPE along with strong mid to high
level winds with elongated hodograph. Similar wind profiles exist
into southern KS, and the low-level jet this evening will maintain a
flow of instability into these storms. An eventual tornado risk may
develop over southeast KS as well later this evening with any
additional discrete development ahead of the existing bows.

..Jewell.. 03/11/2026

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   37649611 36999760 36739856 36739889 36989885 37169858
            37459836 37779794 38579618 38529557 38239538 37989555
            37649611 

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