628 
FXUS64 KMRX 102354
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
654 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 651 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

-Precipitation chances return Tuesday night/Wednesday as a cold 
front moves through

-Mountain Wave High Wind Event possible for Saturday night and 
Sunday. 

-Widespread rain expected to end the weekend with over 1" of rain
 possible for many.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 108 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Currently a warm day even with the increasing clouds across the 
region with most locations well above seasonal high temperatures by 
mid day. Likely to be the warmest day of the calendar year so far 
with some locations expected to see 70 degrees for the first time 
this year. The temperature rise is being aided by the combination of 
a low pressure system off to our northeast, and mid level ridging 
building into our south helping to draw up warm air quickly out of 
the southwest.

We'll see a change in the pattern a bit on Wednesday as a front 
dives down out of the north being trailed behind the surface low 
continuing to move off to our northeast. Rain chances move in 
overnight, but with this being a more continental air mass it will 
be fairly dry with less than a quarter inch of precipitation 
expected for all locations outside of the mountains with their 
orographically enhanced rainfall. Temperatures on Wednesday will 
drop about 10+ degrees compared to today and yet another 5 or so 
degrees by Thursday. 

The next chance of rain arrives on Saturday a a southern stream 
shortwave trough moves through the southern CONUS. This could be a 
fairly dynamic system with a strong southerly flow ahead of it, 
suggesting a potential for mountain waves in the Saturday night time 
frame. Still some uncertainty with when the precipitation will begin 
ahead of the main system, but increasing confidence for a rainy end 
to the weekend with current QPF forecast calling for most locations 
to get around 1 inch or more of rainfall, which is needed with 
worsening drought conditions across much of the southeast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

A period of MVFR ceilings with a low chance for IFR conditions is
likely overnight as a passing cold front brings light rainfall to
the region. Low end LLWS event of 35 to 40 knots at 2k feet. Most
hazardous conditions will likely be ending around 12-15z, with VFR
conditions returning thereafter, and a stout northerly wind taking
over post front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             52  63  35  56 /  90  70   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  46  57  30  51 / 100  50   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       46  57  30  51 /  90  40   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              42  52  25  46 /  90  20   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


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