135 
FXUS64 KMRX 110606
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
206 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 152 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- Warm and breezy today with near record to record high 
  temperatures areawide.

- Showers and storms this evening. Some storms could be strong to
  severe, especially near the Cumberland Plateau. A conditional
  low-end tornado threat will be in place.

- Cooler and drier conditions area-wide Thursday. Then, another warming 
  trend is expected through the weekend.

- Another round of showers and storms will move in by late Sunday or 
  Sunday night, followed by a surge of much colder air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Mostly quiet through the rest of the night and into late morning. 
However, a few isolated showers and storms are possible. Though 
hazardous weather is not anticipated, if we do see any activity there is 
a low chance that a storm could become strong enough to produce small 
hail and/or damaging wind gusts. Confidence on storm development and 
any hazards occurring are low. Latest HRRR isn't too excited, the 
18Z RRFS showed some activity across northeast TN after sunrise but 
the 00Z run backed off the intensity.

Near record to record high temps are expected today ahead of an 
approaching cold front along with breezy winds areawide. Valley 
winds will gusts between 20 and 30 mph and the highest ridgetops 
across the east TN mountains will see gusts from 30 to 40 mph. Below 
are the record high temps for today's date. 

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures:

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge           
03-11   81(2006)       81(2006)       78(2006)       80(1990) 


The main story however will be on a line of showers and storms that 
moves into the area this evening. Some of these storms could be 
strong to severe as the approach and move into our area from out of 
middle TN. The better chances for any severe weather continues to be 
west of I-75, closer to the Cumberland Plateau as this is where 
instability will be highest. Instability, and thus resultant 
strength of storms, are expected to weaken as we get further into 
the evening/overnight hours. CAMs are in decent agreement on arrival 
time and generally show storms moving onto the Cumberland Plateau 
sometime between 5 PM and 8 PM EDT. 00Z HRRR sounding indicate there 
will be surface based instability as storms first arrive, then 
transitioning to elevated instability shortly thereafter. If this 
occurs, we will have a short window where a low-end tornado threat 
will be in place due to the moderately to strongly sheared 
environment. In addition to favorable shear, 3CAPE values of over 
100 J/kg are also supportive of a tornado environment. After storms 
become elevated, the main threat will shift to a damaging wind 
threat. Latest SPC day 2 outlook keeps most of our area in a 2% risk 
for a tornado, with no intensity notated in their new intensity 
categories. This means that if a tornado were to occur it would most 
likely be on the weaker side. Any severe threat will subside after 
midnight, with mainly showers expected thorugh the rest of night. 

The rain will be ending early Thursday, and there may be a few 
snowflakes mixing in over the highest mountains before the 
precipitation ends as colder and drier air pushes in behind the 
front. Very little to no snow accumulation is expected. High 
temperatures will be a bit below normal for a change, topping out in 
the 50s in most valley locations. 

Temperatures rebound nicely on Friday and into the weekend as see a 
southerly return flow. Then, a deep upper trough and cold front move 
into the area on Sunday/Sunday night, bringing another round of 
widespread rain and some storms. This system may also bring high 
winds across the mountains. The severe threat remains low at this 
point but we will continue to watch. Drier and sharply colder air 
will push in behind this front for Monday and Tuesday, with 
temperatures below normal to end out the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 152 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Main headline for the next 24 hours is the arrival of a line of
thunderstorms and rain late in the period, most likely entering
the valley at and after 00z. Still some uncertainty on overall
timing and intensity of the line, but further degradations in
conditions than shown are possible. Storms will have the potential
for severe wind gusts & small hail. Before storm arrival,
strengthening winds aloft will yield gusty S to SW winds at the 
surface, with peak gusts 25 to 30 knots possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             81  45  58  38 /  20 100  20   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  80  43  53  34 /  20 100  20   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       79  42  55  35 /  20 100  20   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              80  40  50  30 /  20 100  40   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


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