887 
FXUS64 KMRX 111159
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
659 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

- Rain tonight exits Wednesday morning as a cold front moves 
  through.

- Widespread rain expected to end the weekend with over 1" of 
  rain possible for many.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Radar has been showing precip over Middle and East TN for several 
hours, falling from a midlevel cloud deck, but nothing appears to
have been reaching the ground, at least at the obs sites. 
Measurable precip for our area will come with the showers that 
are currently across KY, moving SE, associated with a surface cold
front. The precip will move through between 2 AM and 10 AM, with 
most spots receiving around a tenth of an inch but a bit more in 
the mountains due to orographically enhanced rainfall. Model 
soundings show a little elevated instability, but not enough to 
warrant a mention of TS. High temperatures today will drop about 
10-15 degrees compared to today, and yet another 5 or so degrees 
by Thursday as cold advection persists in a NW flow pattern. 

The next chance of rain arrives on Saturday a a southern stream 
shortwave trough moves through the southern CONUS. Models have been 
shifting in their depictions of this system, with the ECMWF now 
showing an open wave instead of the closed low it showed yesterday 
evening, suggesting a less dynamic system and a weaker wind field 
ahead of it. The mountain wave potential that had been mentioned in 
previous discussions and the HWO is trending down with the ECMWF 
solution, and the GFS doesn't show a particularly impressive 
southerly flow. Still some uncertainty with when the precipitation 
will begin ahead of the main system, but increasing confidence for a 
rainy end to the weekend with current QPF forecast calling for most 
locations to get around 1 inch or more of rainfall, which is needed 
with worsening drought conditions across much of the southeast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Showers this morning with isolated to scattered TYS and north and
heavier showers down south near CHA. MVFR to IFR CIG and VSBY due
to rain, will persist until mid to late morning. Clearing will
generally occur from north to south. Winds will eventually be out
of the north if they haven't changed already. Further clearing 
this afternoon and evening with calm conditions expected 
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             62  34  56  37 /  80   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  57  29  50  31 /  60   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       57  29  51  32 /  40   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              52  25  46  25 /  30   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KS


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