489 
FXUS64 KMRX 121726
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
126 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

...New UPDATE, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 120 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- Cooler today, warming trend Friday into the weekend. 

- Another round of showers and storms will move in by late Sunday or 
Sunday night, followed by a surge of sub-freezing  temperatures

- Cold temperatures for the first part of next week, getting back
  to near normal for the second half.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Currently a chilly day out there with temperatures in the 30 or 40's 
with a brisk north/northwest wind. Clouds have almost completely 
cleared out, and the sun will battle against the northerly winds and 
we'll likely end up around 5 degrees below seasonal normals today. 
Temperatures trend upward tomorrow through Sunday with surface high 
and increasing heights in the mid levels.

We take a dramatic turn back towards winter Sunday into Monday as a 
strong trough and surface low swing through the Ohio Valley. This 
will bring with it widespread rain and behind the front we will get 
much colder. We may see temperatures drop fast enough that if this 
is an overnight frontal passage we could see a brief switchover to 
snow on the backside of the precipitation behind the front. Still a 
bit of a ways out, but as of right now light accumulations may be 
possible in the horseshoe of the Appalachians, southwest VA, over 
into the northern Cumberland Plateau.

Cold temperatures stick around for the first half of the week with 
lows on Tuesday and Wednesday morning likely dropping well below 
freezing. So anyone who got ambitious to start a garden early this 
year will need to keep these cold temperatures in mind next week. 
Slow warming trend will finally begin on the second half of the week 
getting back to seasonal normals on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Clouds continue to exit the region and we should be SKC in within
the first couple of hours of the TAFs. Breezy conditions will
continue until the inversion sets up overnight when winds should
become much calmer. During the day tomorrow expect winds to pick
back up, but less gusty compared to today.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 741 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Morning rain to mixed precipitation and changeover to snow north 
of Knoxville will end over the next 2-3 hours or so as the shield 
of precipitation steadily moves eastward. Clouds will scatter not
long after. VFR skies thereafter with winds steadily weakening, 
winds tonight will be calm under clear to mostly clear skies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             37  66  41  74 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  34  63  40  71 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       34  63  40  70 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              29  61  37  67 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)