060 
FXUS64 KMRX 130554
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
154 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 140 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

- Gusty SW winds today through the TN Valley.

- A strong cold front will cross the area Sunday night/Monday 
morning; potential impacts are gusty mountain wave winds and strong 
showers/storms.

- Very cold temperatures behind the front for the first part of next 
week, approaching record lows Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

A strong low pressure system moving across the Great Lakes and high 
pressure across the Deep South today will produce gusty SW winds up 
the TN Valley. The NAM shows winds at the top of the boundary layer 
of 30-40 kt, so surface gusts of 30+ mph are possible at times, 
particularly in the central TN Valley where SW winds tend to get 
channeled through the valley. After the winds subside near sunset, 
quiet weather is expected for the remainder of the week with surface 
high pressure across the OH/TN Valley region and a nearly zonal 
mid/upper level flow. Temperatures will trend warmer through the 
weekend as the high shifts off the Atlantic coastline and the upper 
flow amplifies as a trough digs into the Plains. 

The approaching shortwave trough takes on a slight negative tilt as 
it moves toward the MS Valley, resulting in a strong cold front and 
a rapidly deepening low over the Great Lakes. Ahead of this system, 
a tight pressure gradient will develop across the Appalachians on 
Sunday. The setup appears to indicate the potential for a low end 
mountain wave wind event, with a S-SE LLJ of 40-50 kt indicated by 
the models Sunday night. A convective line is likely to cross the 
area Sunday night. The lack of instability with the overnight timing 
will be a limiting factor for the potential for severe storms, but 
the strong winds aloft could pose threat of near severe wind gusts 
in the highly dynamic environment. 

Temperatures will likely be falling through the day on Monday as the 
cold front sweeps through in the morning. The upper trough 
transitions to a closed low and bring a potent shot of cold air from 
central Canada into the region. Lows Monday night/Tuesday morning 
will drop well into the 20s, which will be within a couple degrees 
of record lows at some locations. Sub-zero wind chills will be 
possible in the mountains. Very cold temperatures continue through 
Tuesday and Tuesday night, with some moderation on Wednesday as the 
upper trough axis shifts east of the Appalachians.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Low level wind shear will be a concern early morning through mid
morning. By mid to late morning, southwesterly winds will become
gusty especially near TYS and TRI. Winds will subside around
sunset tomorrow evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             66  41  73  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  62  40  70  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       63  39  69  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              60  36  66  44 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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