787 
FXUS64 KMRX 140552
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
152 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 138 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- A dynamic system will impact the area late Sunday through Monday. 
First, a high-end mountain wave event is likely Sunday night. Then, 
showers and isolated storms will move through the area early Monday 
morning, bringing potential damaging winds. 

- Very cold air moves in on Monday, and snow showers may bring
  light accumulations in the higher elevations and parts of SW VA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

The Sunday through Monday time frame is the period of potential 
weather impacts as a highly dynamic weather system affects the 
eastern Conus, and will be the focus of this discussion. 

Mountain wave winds: A high-end mountain wave wind event is possible 
from Sunday until the passage of the cold front late Monday morning. 
SE 850 mb winds increase through the day, reaching around 50 kt 
Sunday evening and peaking around 65 kt later in the night. Model 
soundings show a strong inversion near mountain top level that will 
allow for wave ducting. NBM is showing a 75% probability of winds of 
50 kt or greater across the Smokies. Confidence is increasing and a 
High Wind Watch will be issued. 

Severe storms: The strong winds aloft ahead of the approaching cold 
front will result in a damaging wind threat. A line of 
showers/storms is expected to push through the area Sunday night, 
with the current expected timing between midnight and 6 AM. While 
surface-base CAPE will be lacking, the NAM soundings show an 
elevated mixed layer with MUCPAE over 1000 J/kg, lapse rates of 8 
C/km, and dry air aloft. Bowing structures withing the QLCS will be 
areas of enhanced straight-line damaging winds, and in the highly 
sheared environment, an isolated short-lived tornado cannot be ruled 
out. Given the strong QG forcing and jet dynamics, this line will 
probably maintain its intensity as it moves through our area, 
despite the overnight timing. While the current SPC Outlook has the 
Slight Risk in our western half, it would not be surprising to see 
this shifted east with later updates.

The potent cold front moves through the area Monday morning, and 
temperatures will likely be falling through the day. Strong cold 
advection and rapidly falling temperatures aloft will lead to a 
transition to snow on Monday afternoon and continue into Monday 
night. Accumulations will likely be limited to the higher elevations 
and possibly parts of SW VA, but some scattered snow showers will 
likely occur as far south as the central TN Valley/Knoxville area. 
Climatologically, snowfall of 0.5 inches or greater has not occurred 
this late in the year in Knoxville since 1999. However, this has 
happened several times in the Tri-Cities and other higher elevation 
areas. Temperatures will approach record lows on Tuesday morning, 
and potentially Wednesday morning in some northern spots. Sub-zero 
wind chills are also likely in the mountains Monday night/Tuesday 
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions will continue with mostly clear skies. Light 
northeasterly winds today will become more southerly this 
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             75  54  74  41 /   0   0  20  90 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  71  49  74  43 /   0   0  10  80 
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  48  74  41 /   0   0  10  80 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              67  46  69  47 /   0   0  10  60 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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