FOUS30 KWBC 110809
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent. 

Bann


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent. 

Bann


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026

...There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall Across Portions
of the Southern Plains on Friday...

A southern stream shortwave should be making its way into portions
of the Southern Plains Friday afternoon/evening. Precipitation is expected 
to develop and spread quickly into the south-central states from  
Friday into early Saturday morning. Given antecedent 
conditions...rainfall from this system should generally be 
beneficial. There is uncertainty with respect to how much the 
southern stream shortwave phases with the northern stream as it 
moves across the southern half of the country and there are still
some signals for there to be window of opportunity for training of
cells in a region with above moisture anomalies. As such...the
Marginal risk area was fairly broad to capture the range of
solutions shown by the suite of 00Z guidance. 

Bann
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