920 
FXUS64 KMRX 150529
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
129 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 117 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

-  Very strong gusty mountain wave enhanced winds will impact some 
of the higher elevations and foothills of the mountains tonight into 
early Monday. Lesser, but still significant and gusty, winds can be 
expected across the remainder of the area Sunday afternoon and night.

-  A line of showers and storms will move across the area after 
midnight Sunday night. The main threat will be damaging winds, but a 
tornado cannot be ruled out, especially across the southern valley 
and plateau. 

-  Very cold air surges in Monday and continues across the area 
through Wednesday morning. Snow showers may bring light 
accumulations in higher elevations and parts of southwest VA Monday 
afternoon and night. 

-  Gradual warming trend with mostly dry conditions mid week into
   the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

We are currently between an upper ridge with its axis to our east, 
and an upper trough digging into the western Plains. A surface low 
pressure system over the Central Plains will deepen and move 
northeast and north into the Great Lakes Region by the early morning 
hours Monday as the upper trough digs into the Mississippi Valley, 
dragging a sharp cold front through our area after midnight Sunday 
night. 

The southerly low level jet will be strengthening beginning 
tonight, and will peak Sunday night ahead of the front with 850mb 
winds expected to be around 50 to 60kts at that time. Mountain wave 
enhancement of the winds is expected to bring strong gusty winds to 
the normally favored higher elevation and foothill areas starting 
tonight, with the strongest winds Sunday night as the low level jet 
peaks.  The high wind warning will be allowed to continue as is. 
Elsewhere the winds will become gusty as well, with many locations 
seeing wind gusts of 30+ mph during the afternoon Sunday, and a few 
spots may gust close to 40 mph.  There will likely be a period of 
even stronger winds Sunday night as the pressure gradient 
strengthens near the advancing front, and this would be the best 
chance to see gusts to advisory criteria in areas not included in 
the high wind warning. This will bear watching and a wind advisory 
for Sunday night may be needed as we get closer.  

Another expected impact from this system is the severe storm 
potential with the line of convection that will be moving through 
after midnight Sunday night. Not much has changed from previous 
thinking. The timing still looks to be after midnight, with the line 
sweeping quickly through the area entering the Plateau by around 1 
AM and exiting to our east by 5 or 6 AM. The primary threat still 
looks to be damaging winds, although a tornado threat does exist due 
to the very strong shear and at least some available convective 
energy. Models indicate the 0-1km shear will likely peak near 40 kts 
with effective shear as high as 50kts along with a hodograph that 
favors streamwise vorticity in the low levels. Some hi-res model 
data suggests a brief window where SBCAPE could reach 250 to 500 
J/kg just ahead of the front with 0-3km CAPE climbing briefly to 
around or above 40 J/kg mainly across and near the Southern Plateau 
and portions of the southern Valley, with weaker instabilty to the 
north. There is a very low tornado threat across the majority of our 
area, but it is a bit higher across the aforementioned higher 
instability areas across the southern Valley and southern Plateau. 

Behind the front it will turn sharply colder Monday.  Temperatures 
will be falling during the day rather than showing a typical diurnal 
trend.  The freezing level will rapidly drop, and rain showers will 
transition to snow showers first over the higher elevations, and 
even the valleys may see some snow mixing in later in the day before 
the precipitation ends. The ground is still rather warm, and light 
accumulations of snow will likely be limited to the higher 
elevations, although a short lived dusting on grassy surfaces may 
occur even in some valley locations. Low temperatures may not be far 
from record lows early Tuesday morning, and potentially Wednesday 
morning in some northern spots. Sub-zero wind chills are also likely 
in the mountains Monday night/Tuesday morning. 

The Wednesday through Saturday time frame looks mainly dry with a 
gradual warming trend, although an upper short wave with limited 
moisture available moving through the flow may manage to squeeze out 
a few light showers at some point. However, the NBM is leaning 
mostly dry and the forecast will follow suit for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Southerly winds around 2k feet are increasing. Therefore, low
level wind shear will be a concern through mid morning. By mid
morning, surface winds will increase with gusts of 25 to 30 knots
expected even past sunset. A line of showers and storms will move
through just after this TAF period. VFR conditions are expected
with a gradual lowering of CIGs this evening and deteriorating
conditions just beyond this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             73  37  48  26 /  10 100  40   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  73  38  50  23 /  10  90  70  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       72  36  48  23 /  10  90  60  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              69  40  58  21 /  10  80  90  20 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...High Wind Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for Blount Smoky 
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky 
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast 
     Monroe-Unicoi.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for 
     Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier 
     Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast 
     Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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