537 
FXUS64 KMRX 151935
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
335 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 200 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

-  Very strong gusty mountain wave enhanced winds will impact some
   of the higher elevations and foothills of the mountains through
   early tomorrow. Lesser, but still significant and gusty, winds
   can be expected across the remainder of the area this 
   afternoon and overnight tonight.

-  A line of showers and storms will move across the area after
   midnight tonight. The main threat will be damaging winds, but 
   a tornado cannot be ruled out, especially across the southern 
   valley and plateau. 

-  Very cold air surges in tomorrow and continues across the area
   through Wednesday morning. Snow showers may bring light
   accumulations for higher elevations and parts of southwest VA 
   tomorrow. 

-  Gradual warming trend, with mostly dry conditions mid week 
   into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Temperatures warmed for some well ahead of time this morning, 
with downslope on the rise overnight across the higher terrain. 
Camp Creek has peeked at 61 mph as well as 55 mph at Cove 
Mountain at the time of this discussion. A much stronger jet will
form overnight tonight, hence the High Wind Warning for gusts up
to 75 mph, with locally higher to 80 mph. Expect gusts to around
30 mph during the afternoon today for locations outside of the 
mountains.

A 994 low pressure center currently located near MO-IA-IL at 2:30
pm EDT is forecast to continue deepening as it moves towards MI 
tonight. The peak strength is forecast to be around 980 mb. An
impressively deep trough will sweep across the middle of the
country before curling up towards the northeastern seaboard. A
very strong and potent cold front will bring very cold/much below
normal temperatures to area beginning tomorrow and lasting into
Wednesday. The storm is expected to bring deep snow and blizzard
conditions to the north, and severe weather towards the south in
the warm sector.

Timing for us looks generally the same with the earliest arrival
to our western counties near midnight EDT. 1 AM EDT is when we
expect the line to begin touching the plateau counties. Between 3
and 4 AM EDT, the line should be crossing through the center part
of our CWA, slicing Knox County. 4, 5, and 6 AM EDT is when it'll
push towards the eastern part of the CWA (Southern Appalachians) and
on a weakening trend. Near and after sunrise, what is left will 
be exiting to the east.

The latest SPC lines well with our thinking; the Enhanced Risk (3
out of 5) was extended to cover the southern plateau and some of
the southern valley. This area has the greatest threat of a quick
spin-up circulation. Wind dynamics are off the charts from the 
SFC to aloft, as well as ample SRH. The only slightly limiting 
factors will be instability near the surface as well as moisture.
Dew points, even at this time are not impressive, and will
struggle to breach 60 degrees. Dew points even at this time are 
slow to rise. Because of the very strong steering winds, storms 
will move very quickly, and any spin-ups will likely form in a
snap of a finger as well. Damaging winds, with thunderstorm gusts
in excess of 70 mph could be possible with the line. Severe winds
remains the main threat. Severe hail will be hard to come by with
low-topped storms, and hardly any hail CAPE. Freezing levels may 
also be a bit too high. Small hail could be possible, however.

Forecast soundings show a pretty weakening trend in severe
potential (especially tornadoes) the more north and east. Forecast
soundings in the southern plateau are very favorable, but a
sounding at Knoxville begins to show a weak inversion forming
overnight. This is more prevalent near the Tri-Citites, with a
stout inversion and elevated instability. Severe winds reaching
the surface with that kind of atmospheric profile, may be limited.

Outside of the higher terrain, gradient winds will increase ahead
of the cold front. The plateau and southern portions of the
forecast area depict the best chance of seeing Wind Advisory level
gusts tonight and into the morning hours. Locations hinting at a
developing inversion, may not see gusts as strong. The rest of the
forecast area is under a Wind Advisory beginning at midnight and
going through 8 AM EDT. This is outside of any thunderstorm winds.

Following the front's passage, residual moisture with near
freezing and below temperatures tomorrow, may fall as snow.
Flurries possible in the valley, but if any accumulation can 
occur, the higher terrain will have the best chances. Confidence 
is pretty low on how much moisture ends up becoming snow and if 
anything will stick. Most likely only elevated surfaces. Anything
from a dusting to from 1 to 3 inches could be possible. The higher
end of the range would be more probable in places such as LeConte
and Roan Mountain.

Tuesday until the end of the work week will be dry, however, the
first couple of those days will be cold, as ridging slowly tries 
to build back in following the trough. High pressure will develop 
to our west, eventually situating over the Mid-Atlantic. A weak 
system will try to dive down from the northwest, but moisture 
appears limited, so precipitation at this time remains out of our 
area. Tuesday and Wednesday morning lows will feel like we didn't
leave the dead of winter, with readings in the teens and 20s. With
wind over the higher terrain persisting through Tuesday morning,
wind chills will be cold with apparent temperatures in the single
digits with some just below zero single digits possible. Towards
the end of the week and weekend, temperatures in the valley 
rebound to the 60s and 70s again. Perhaps a cold front for next
weekend, but consensus isn't quite there yet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Gusty winds continue through the period, though a wind shift will
occur behind a cold front early Monday morning. As the cold front
moves through the area overnight, a line of showers and storms is
expected. Lightning is most likely at CHA and TYS, and less likely
at TRI. Vis and cig drops are also expected as this activity
moves through, and the heaviest convection could lead to briefly
enhanced wind gusts. This has been included in a tempo. Showers
and periods of showers and MVFR cigs will continue to TYS/TRI
tomorrow afternoon. Less confidence exist for lingering light rain
at CHA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             41  46  27  45 / 100  50   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  42  48  23  40 /  90  70  10   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       41  47  23  40 /  90  70  10   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              46  56  21  35 /  70 100  30  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Monday for 
     Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Wind Advisory from midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight to 8 AM EDT 
     /7 AM CDT/ Monday for Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-Campbell-
     Claiborne-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-
     Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-
     North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest 
     Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-
     Sequatchie-Sullivan-Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

     High Wind Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for Blount Smoky 
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky 
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast 
     Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Monday for Lee-
     Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...KRS


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