MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 152344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152343 
KYZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-160145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0251
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Areas affected...eastern Arkansas...western Kentucky...western
Tennessee...northern Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 55...

Valid 152343Z - 160145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 55 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes
continues within and downstream of WW53 into WW55.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms with embedded supercell
structures continues eastward through eastern AR and into northern
LA. Within the embedded supercells, occasional mesovorticies have
been observed in radar. This line continues to move into a favorably
unstable and strongly sheared environment across northern
Mississippi and western Tennessee. A few semi-discrete supercells
have developed ahead of the main line of storms moving
north-northeast. Any discrete cell ahead of the front will pose an
increased hail and tornado risk. 

The VAD profile from KNQA (Memphis, TN) shows steadily increasing
low-level shear profiles with the strengthening low-level jet. RAP
forecasts indicate the LLJ will continue to increase, particularly
across northern MS into TN (around 50 kts) over the next few hours.
The threat for damaging winds will continue with potential for an
increase in the tornado threat as low-level shear continues to
increase as low-level hodographs enlarge.

..Thornton.. 03/15/2026

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   32749288 33669283 34609170 35879104 37079033 37558951
            37338829 36748767 36438771 36308785 35618809 34758868
            33578967 33059097 32739279 32749288 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

$$
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