ACUS01 KWNS 161233
SWODY1
SPC AC 161232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VIRGINIA...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Fast moving thunderstorms may become widespread and accompanied by
the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes across the Mid
Atlantic today.  There is potential that a couple of storms could
become capable of producing strong and long track tornadoes.

...Southeast States...

An intense upper trough continues to deepen over the Mid MS Valley,
with its associated surface cold front surging eastward across the
Appalachians and into the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic.  An active line of
thunderstorms is accompanying the front from GA into western
SC/NC/VA.  Low-level winds are very strong along and ahead of these
storms, encouraging the risk of numerous severe wind gusts and
embedded QLCS tornadoes along the line.  Clusters of thunderstorms
have been developing ahead of the line as well, in a moist and
strongly sheared environment.  These storms will also pose a
severe/tornado risk through the day as the primary large-scale
ascent arrives.

...Mid Atlantic States into NY...

Farther north, low-level moisture is a little more limited and CAPE
values will be slightly lower.  Nevertheless, intense low and mid
level wind fields will be present across this region as the cold
front approaches from the west.  Thunderstorms are expected to
strengthen through the late morning across west-central VA into
central NY/PA and spread eastward to the coast by early evening.
Forecast soundings across this area show very large low-level shear
values that will favor the risk of widespread damaging winds and
several tornadoes.  Strong tornadoes will be possible - especially
from MD southward where the greatest low-level moisture will be present.

In the wake of the main convection, secondary cyclogenesis is
forecast to occur late this afternoon along the cold front over
VA/MD.  The initial storms will remove most of the low-level
moisture/instability, but the extreme intensity of the low-level
winds fields and large-scale forcing could result in a secondary
risk of damaging winds from low-topped showers and thunderstorms
after dark.  This threat could spread northeastward into eastern
PA/NJ and perhaps southern New England.

..Hart/Lyons.. 03/16/2026

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