916 
FXUS64 KMRX 161911
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
311 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 307 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026


-  Light to moderate snowfall continues this afternoon and
   evening. Best chance for light snow fall accumulations are
   across the high elevations of southwest Virginia, The East
   Tennessee Mountains, and the Cumberland Plateau.

-  Below normal temperatures continue through Wednesday morning.
   Coldest period will be tonight into Tuesday morning, with wind
   chills in the single digits to a few degrees below zero in high
   elevations. Elsewhere, windchills will be in the low 20s and 
   teens.

-  Gradual warming trend with mostly dry conditions mid week into the
   weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Per this afternoon, a highly anomalous upper level trough sits atop 
the eastern CONUS as a deep surface low ejects from the Great Lakes 
into eastern Canada. The associated cold front that brought last 
nights line of convection has largely progressed through the East 
Tennessee Valley and is now on the eastern side of the Appalachians.

The combination of weak isentropic ascent and steepening lapse rates 
is tapping into lingering deep moisture and promoting a secondary 
round of precipitation. What originally started as predominant rain 
has transitioned to a rain/snow mix for many, with some higher 
elevations and central & western sections of the forecast area 
already at predominant snow as colder air filters into the region. 
Overall, a a tougher forecast as despite this being some of the 
better snowfall rates we have observed in valley locations 
throughout this cold season, we have had well above normal 
temperatures for a considerable amount of time. Combined with the 
fact that the bulk of the efficient snowfall rates are occurring in 
the daytime hours, much of the snow, at least initially, is expected 
to melt on ground contact.  

Based on recent radar trends and reports received by neighboring 
WFOs and to our office, some slight adjustments were made to Winter 
Weather Advisories. The main focus was on adding our Cumberland 
Plateau counties to an advisory until 8PM EDT. Generally expect inch 
of accumulation in these locations, with a few spots on the northern 
Cumberland Plateau potentially seeing isolated higher totals upwards 
of 2 inches. Additionally, Russell, Lee, and Washington counties 
were added to an Advisory as well. Overall thoughts in these 
locations remain pretty similar to previous forecasts, in that some 
1 to 4 inches are possible, with isolated higher amounts in the 
highest peaks of the smokies. Though, latest trends on the Newfound 
snow depth sensor show just near one-half inch thus far. An SPS was 
used to cover valley locations, split into a southern and northern 
section. In northern areas expectations are from a dusting to a half-
inch of accumulation being possible, with southern valley 
locations(as well as southwest NC) not expected to see much more 
than a dusting. 

Based on latest NAMBufr and RAP13 cross-sections and soundings, 
saturation will gradually shallow out as we head into the evening, 
reducing snowfall efficiency as DGZ saturation becomes less 
favorable. Scattered light snow showers or flurries are expected to 
continue into the overnight, and may even linger into Tuesday some. 
However, probabilities of accumulation will gradually decrease after 
8pm, and even further more near or just after midnight. The biggest 
potential impact may actually be the potential formation of black 
ice on roadways as any residual moisture freezes with temperatures 
falling into the twenties following sunset. The biggest question is 
how effective can the light winds be at drying off the wet 
pavements. Have also included a mention of the black ice potential 
in the SPS and an additional SPS focused solely on black ice may be 
needed into the morning hours after the threat for light snow ends. 

Temperatures will be below normal tonight through Wednesday night. 
Cold wind chills are in the low 20s to teens are expected in valley 
locations tonight. Higher elevations of the East TN mountains and SW 
VA could get as low as the single digits to single digits below 
zero. As the trough axis shifts east mid-week, a gradual warming 
trend with mostly dry weather is expected through the remainder of 
the forecast. A few brief instances of slight chance precipitation 
are possible with weak shortwaves at times, but this would be non-
impactful. 


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Snow showers will move across the region this afternoon and into
this evening. Reduced visibilities and MVFR ceilings are 
expected, with TEMPO IFR as well. Winds will remain gusty out of 
the west to round 25 kts. VFR conditions return to CHA later this 
afternoon, later tonight at TYS, and late in the period at TRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             27  45  29  55 /  10   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  24  40  25  50 /  20  10   0  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       24  40  25  50 /  10  10   0  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              21  35  19  45 /  30  20   0  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening 
     for Bledsoe-Marion-Morgan-Scott TN-Sequatchie.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for Blount Smoky 
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky 
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast 
     Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for Lee-Russell-
     Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99


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