108 
FXUS64 KMRX 141717
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
117 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- Well above normal temperatures expected through this week into 
the first half of the weekend. Record highs are possible. 

- Chance of showers Thursday evening, but light amounts will mean 
little relief from the worsening drought and fire weather 
conditions. 

- Increasing confidence of showers with a cold front passage 
Saturday night/Sunday morning, followed by cooler temperatues next 
week.
  

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Hot and dry conditions continue to be the main weather story for the 
area, thanks to a large ridge of high pressure over the Gulf and SE 
CONUS. 

Today and Wednesday, high temperatures will be close to record highs 
with a SW flow, subsidence under the ridge, and limited cloud cover. 
Low RH values will be of concern for fire weather interests, 
bottoming out in the 25-35% range both today and Wednesday for most 
locations, but for the most part SW winds will not be higher than 
the 5-15 mph range.

The mid/upper ridge axis gets pushed east on Thrusday as a shortwave 
trough approaches from the west. This system brings a chance of 
showers Thursday evening, but weak dynaimc forcing and limited 
moisture will result in light QPF amounts (< 0.1 on average) and 
little impact on the ongoing drought conditions and wildfires. There 
is some elevated instability that will support some thunderstorms, 
mainly in our Plateau counties. 

The ridge will build back Friday behind the exiting shortwave 
trough. High temperatures will be approaching records again on 
Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances may arrive for Saturday 
night into Sunday as models show a deep trough developing over the 
Plains that could push a cold front through our area. Model 
agreement, run-to-run consistency, and jet-induced dynamic forcing 
lead to increasing confidence of rain chances. Behind the front, 
cooler temperatures are expected as highs should be closer to 
normal, or slightly below, for Sunday and Monday.  

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge      
04-14   87(2010)       86(1887)       85(1938)       88(2017)       
04-15   87(2006)       87(1936)       85(1945)       86(2024)       
04-16   89(2002)       87(1896)       87(2002)       88(2002)       
04-17   91(1955)       90(1896)       85(2002)       88(1955)       
04-18   90(2002)       90(1896)       87(2002)       89(2002)


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Winds through the afternoon will be 10-15 kt with some gusts up to
20 kt, decreasing around 23-00Z. Southwest winds tomorrow will be
lighter, mainly 5-10 kt. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             59  88  60  87 /   0   0   0  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  59  86  60  85 /   0   0   0  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       57  86  58  85 /   0   0   0  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              55  84  58  84 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


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