761 
FXUS64 KMRX 151059
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
659 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 656 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

-  Well above normal temperatures expected through this week into
   the first half of the weekend. Record highs are possible. 

-  Chance of showers Thursday evening, but precipitation amounts
   will generally be light providing little relief from the
   worsening drought and fire weather conditions

-  A better chance of showers Saturday night/Sunday morning,
   followed by cooler temperatures early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Unseasonably hot and dry conditions continue to be the main weather 
story for the area, thanks to a persistent large ridge of high 
pressure over the Gulf and SE CONUS. 

For Wednesday, high temperatures will be close to record highs with 
a SW flow, subsidence under the ridge, and limited cloud cover. Low 
RH values will be of concern for fire weather interests, bottoming 
out in the 25-35% range Wednesday for most locations, but for the 
most part SW winds will not be higher than the 5-15 mph range.

The mid/upper ridge will briefly be interrupted by a shortwave 
trough approaching from the west late Thursday that will move across 
our area Thursday night. The late arrival of increased cloud cover 
and precip chances Thursday will allow for another very warm day 
with high temperatures not far off the records. RH values will again 
bottom out in the 25 to 35% range during the afternoon and winds 
will be slightly stronger.  As the short wave moves in it will bring 
a chance of showers late Thursday into Thursday night, but weak 
forcing and limited moisture will generally result in light rainfall 
amounts, and little overall impact on the ongoing drought conditions 
and wildfires (ensemble data has chances for 24 hour precipitation 
amounts exceeding a quarter inch ranging from around 10% to 30%, 
with the higher values across our northwest counties). Models show 
some limited instability that may support a few thunderstorms, with 
the highest chance for thunder being across our Plateau counties. 

The ridge will build back Friday behind the departing shortwave 
trough. High temperatures will be approaching records again on 
Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances may arrive for Saturday 
night into Sunday as models show a deep trough developing over the 
Plains that will drag a cold front through our area as the trough 
moves east. Models are in decent agreement on this scenario, 
although differ more in the details that will be important in 
determining how much precipitation we will see.  Ensemble data 
currently shows around a 50% chance of seeing over a quarter inch of 
rain and closer to a 20% chance of seeing more than a half inch (24 
hour period).  What is more certain than the precip amounts is that 
we will see cooler temperatures moving in with high temperatures 
near or even a bit below normal both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures 
will begin to trend warmer again Tuesday.  

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge      
04-15   87(2006)       87(1936)       85(1945)       86(2024)       
04-16   89(2002)       87(1896)       87(2002)       88(2002)       
04-17   91(1955)       90(1896)       85(2002)       88(1955)       
04-18   90(2002)       90(1896)       87(2002)       89(2002)
04-19   91(2002)       90(1941)       90(1941)       90(2002)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

VFR conditions continue among a diurnal wind pattern persistent 
with previous days. Breezy southwest winds in the afternoon.
becoming light overnight. Amplified low-level flow may result in
a period of LLWS tomorrow night as well. But confidence too low to
include this far out. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             87  61  87  62 /   0   0  20  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  85  61  85  61 /   0   0  20  40 
Oak Ridge, TN                       86  59  85  60 /   0   0  30  40 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              83  57  83  59 /   0   0  10  40 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS


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