224 
FXUS64 KMRX 181745
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
145 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 135 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

- One more night of near freezing temperatures with patchy frost 
possible

- Gradual warming trend to resume with warm weather for Thursday 
through the weekend. Mostly dry conditions through the weekend.

- Cold front next Monday to return temperatures to more seasonable 
mild weather for late March. Only low chances for rain next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Currently we've crossed back above the freezing mark today with 
more southwesterly flow near the surface. Weak disturbance is 
moving overhead, but the dew point depression this afternoon is 
20-30 degrees meaning that anything other than light drizzle is 
unlikely, but a few people in southeast TN could get a quick spit 
of rain. We should remain above freezing for most locations 
outside of the mountains and southwest Virginia tonight, and 
remain above freezing for at least the next 7-days.

Temperatures really begin to warm back up starting tomorrow when the 
sun will try and make it's return to the region. We'll continue the 
warm up through at least Sunday, which is forecasted to be the 
warmest day of the week with highs looking to eclipse the 80 degree 
mark for the central and southern Tennessee Valley. 

We'll get a cool down to end the weekend as a slow moving front dips 
down from the north. Still some model discrepancies with how far 
west and south the heavier precipitation will extend along this 
front trying to fight against the strong southwest ridge. 
Temperatures will remain well warm enough that any precipitation 
will fall as rain, and as of now the dynamics don't look 
particularly impressive for severe weather. Temperatures to start of 
next week will be cooler, back to near seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Mid level clouds will remain in place for the first several hours
of the TAF cycle. Otherwise generally light winds and VFR
conditions expected for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             38  69  45  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  36  64  44  72 /  10  10  10  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       35  64  43  71 /  10  10  10  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              32  58  40  67 /   0  10  10  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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