997 
FXUS64 KMRX 112323
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
623 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

- Dry through at least Friday.

- Widespread rain expected to end the weekend with over 1" of 
  rain possible for many.

- Dry and warmer to start next week.  

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

We start the period in northwest flow aloft between upper level 
ridging to our west and a trough off to our east, and this will 
persist over the next couple of days.  We will be dry with 
temperatures not too far off normal for this time of year through 
Friday night. 

The next chance of rain arrives by late on Saturday as a southern
stream shortwave trough moves across the southern CONUS. Models 
have been struggling with the details of this system, both with 
how strong the wave and its associated surface low will be and 
exactly how far south it will track. Depending on these details, 
there still is some potential for at least wind advisory level 
mountain wave winds in the usual mountain and foothill areas 
Saturday night into Sunday, but for now given the uncertainty will
keep the current low probability wording in the HWO. What is more
certain is that we will see rain moving in sometime late Saturday
or Saturday night and continuing Sunday. Thermal profiles suggest
all the precipitation will fall as rain. Latest NBM probability 
data shows around a 40% to 70% chance across our area of rainfall 
exceeding 1 inch by the time the rain ends Sunday night with the 
higher probabilities south and west. The rainfall is needed at 
this point given the worsening drought conditions across much of 
the southeast.

Upper ridging is forecast to build in for the early part of next 
week, with mainly dry and warmer conditions through Wednesday. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR and dry conditions expected with light northerly winds 
continuing. High cirrus likely to continue streaming overhead. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             35  56  37  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  30  50  30  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       30  51  30  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              26  46  25  50 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


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