490 
FXUS64 KMRX 200618
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
218 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 201 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

- Above normal temperatures this weekend. Highs Sunday will be 15
  to 20 degrees above normal.

- Scattered to isolated showers/storms Saturday with low-end
  potential of hail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Troughing off the Atlantic coast and a large ridge over the western 
Conus will maintain the NW flow pattern across the TN Valley
region today. The warming trend will continue, with highs in the 
70s central and south, to mid/upper 60s north. Winds could get 
breezy and gusty this afternoon as the SW wind gets channeled up 
the Valley, with winds at the top of the boundary layer between 
25-30 kt. 

A surface front and a weak upper trough drop SW across the OH Valley 
on Friday night. This could bring some showers and isolated 
thunderstorms to our northern sections overnight. The front settles 
E-W along the TN/VA/KY border area on Saturday, and could be the 
focus for shower/thunderstorm development in the afternoon. Model 
soundings show some good midlevel lapse rates around 8-8.5 C/km and 
MLCAPE around 1200 J/kg at CHA, but there is a capping inversion 
that will need to be overcome to realize this instability. Forcing 
appears weak so confidence on a severe threat is low. Hail would be 
the main threat with gusty winds possible as well if storms can 
develop.  

A low pressure system over the Plains will keep a SW surface flow 
across our area on Sunday that will provide warm temperatures. Highs 
will reach well into the 80s for much of the TN Valley. A cold front 
will cross the area on Monday, but limited moisture will mean little 
in the way of precipitation. Cooler temperatures will follow for 
Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Calm under high pressure through sunrise. SW winds and gusts
will increase for the day today. Clouds build in from the north 
later in the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             77  53  83  55 /   0  10  10  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  72  54  79  56 /   0  10  20  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       72  52  79  53 /   0  10  20  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              67  51  72  51 /  10  20  20  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KS


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