872 
FXUS64 KMRX 201835
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
235 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 234 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

- Most of the area will remain dry for the rest of today and 
tonight, outside of low-end rain chances in southwest Virginia late.

- Scattered showers and storms are possible late Saturday afternoon 
and evening. The main threat with these storms will be hail. 

- Warm and breezy conditions are expected Sunday with rain returning 
Sunday night into Monday morning. Then, dry and seasonally cooler 
conditions are expected until a warming trend late in the week. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Currently, a strong upper high is centered over the desert southwest 
with shortwave troughing to our northeast. A frontal boundary is 
also near the Great Lakes. This has put the region in a 
northwesterly flow pattern aloft with southwesterly flow in the 
lower levels. Isolated showers and storms will track in southwest 
Virginia late tonight into Saturday morning, largely keeping the 
region dry. On Saturday, a very weak shortwave will move overhead 
with the northern front moving southward. This will lead to 
increasing lift and moisture, sufficient for convection late 
afternoon into the evening. Winds aloft will be only around 20 to 25 
kts with largely elevated instability of 500 to 1,000 J/kg and mid-
level lapse rates over 6 C/km. This will lead to potential for hail 
within any storms, especially with WBZ heights below 10,000 feet. 
CAMs differ significantly on how much convection develops, if any. 
By Sunday, the flow aloft will become more zonal as troughing lifts 
to the northeast, followed by another deepening trough to the 
northwest. A surface low will then track towards the northeast, 
increasing low-level winds and pulling the front further south. This 
will lead to very warm and breezy conditions on Sunday but with rain 
chances not arriving until late in the night or early Monday 
morning. While winds will be stronger, instability is indicated to 
be nearly 0, keeping chances for actual convection limited. Still, 
the stronger MSLP gradient and synoptic flow could lead to gusty 
winds. 

During the day on Monday, the front will have moved south of the 
region with high pressure expanding from the north. This will 
promote drier and seasonally cooler conditions, which remain 
generally the same into Tuesday. By Wednesday, broad ridging will 
expand from the southwest with high pressure shifting eastward, 
leading to a return of southerly flow and increasing moisture and 
WAA. Low-end rain chances are indicated for Wednesday as the remnant 
front is pulled back northward, but this is limited overall. Late in 
the week, a stronger system is expected to develop and track far to 
our north. Overall, the impacts for our area look limited, but the 
question will be when and if its associated front arrives. This 
could bring showers and storms but likely not until later Thursday 
or Friday. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Windy conditions continue through today with mid to high level 
clouds remaining in place coming out of the north. Winds slack off
after sunset, and while they'll pick back up tomorrow, they are 
not expected to be as breezy.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             55  83  58  86 /   0  30  20   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  56  79  58  84 /  10  30  20   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       54  80  56  84 /  10  30  20   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              53  73  53  80 /  20  20  10   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...99


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