102 
FXUS64 KMRX 121140
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
640 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 635 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

- Dry through at least Friday.

- Widespread rain expected to end the weekend with over 1" of 
  rain possible for many.

- Dry and warmer to start next week.  

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

A NW flow pattern will continue today, with 850 mb cold advection 
continuing. Highs will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s, but a warmup 
will be on tap for the rest of the week as advection turns neutral 
to positive ahead of a building ridge. By Saturday, highs will be in 
the mid 50s to lower 60s. One change of note to the NBM will be to 
lower daytime dewpoints, which were much too high yesterday as the 
model does not adequately account for boundary layer mixing and 
drying.

The next chance of rain arrives by late on Saturday as the ridge 
exits and a southern stream shortwave trough moves across the 
southern CONUS. Models have been struggling with the details of this 
system, both with how strong the wave and its associated surface low 
will be and exactly how far south it will track. Strong mountain 
winds cannot be ruled out, but the southern track of the low is not 
conducive to an impactful mountain wave wind event. Confidence is
higher that we will see rain moving in sometime late Saturday or 
Saturday evening, continuing through Sunday. Thermal profiles 
suggest all the precipitation will fall as rain, with some weak 
instability in southern sections suggesting a low chance of 
thunderstorms on Sunday. Latest NBM probability data shows around 
a 30% to 60% chance across our area of rainfall exceeding 1 inch 
by the time the rain ends Sunday night, with the highest 
probabilities south and west. 

A large high pressure ridge will cross the Gulf and Southeast 
next week, providing dry and mild conditions through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR and dry under high pressure can be expected through the TAF 
period. SKC this morning at some sites may see mid to high clouds 
later in the day. Nly to NEly light winds. Calm conditions for 
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             56  36  60  37 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  51  30  56  32 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       52  31  56  32 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              46  24  50  27 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KS


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