180 
FXUS64 KMRX 220651
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
251 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 248 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

- Unseasonably warm and breezy Sunday with a low chance of rain returning
  Sunday night/Monday morning, mainly north of interstate 40.
 
- Dry and seasonally cooler conditions are expected Monday,
  followed by a warming trend and returning rain chances late in
  the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

A low level SW flow will continue today as a low pressure system 
tracks from the central Plains to the lower OH Valley, tightening 
the pressure gradient across our area. Expect some gusty SW winds in 
the TN Valley, around 20-30 mph at times. Highs today will be well 
above normal - in the lower to mid 80s in most spots. This will be 
within a few degrees of record highs - the TRI record of 81 could be 
tied or broken, as well as OQT's record high of 83. 

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge          
03-22   89(1907)       87(1907)       81(1938)       83(2011) 

Tonight and Monday morning, a shortwave trough will move across the 
Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region. The associated cold front 
will move across our area, but dynamics with upper trough and jet will be 
mainly north of the area. A line of weakening showers and a few 
elevated thunderstorms will move across southwest Virginia and 
northeast Tennessee between 2 and 8 AM. Main chances of rain will be 
north of interstate 40, with only light amounts between a tenth and 
a quarter inch.

A colder air mass will build into the area on Monday behind the cold 
frontal passage. High pressure over the Great Lakes and OH Valley 
region will promote drier and seasonally cooler conditions through 
Tuesday. By Wednesday, broad ridging will expand from the southwest 
with high pressure shifting eastward, leading to a return of 
southerly flow and warming temperatures. Rain chances return late in 
the week as a front settles somewhere in the TN/OH Valley region.
The position of a large high pressure ridge across the Gulf Coast
region will mean moisture will be limited, but the front could 
linger in the area for a few days as it remains nearly stationary 
and parallel to the midlevel flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

VFR to generally be expected through the TAF period. Slight chance
of showers in VC of TRI the next couple of hours from struggling
convection moving SE. SWly gusts will increase during the day
today ahead of a cold frontal passage Monday morning. Afternoon
gusts may subside some around sunset, then increase again once the
front nears from the north. Any sort of chance of precipitation
from the front will most likely not fall during this TAF time 
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             86  63  74  47 /   0  10   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  83  58  68  43 /   0  20  10   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       83  58  68  43 /   0  30  10   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              80  53  63  37 /   0  50  20   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KS


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