036 
FXUS64 KMRX 221842
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
242 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 225 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

- A chance of showers late tonight and early Monday morning, mainly
  north of interstate 40.
 
- Low afternoon relative humidity expected for Monday, Tuesday,
  and Wednesday.

- Mostly dry and near seasonal to above normal temperatures
  throughout much of the week. Drought conditions likely worsens
  across southeast Tennessee.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Currently, subsidence from ridging over the region is suppressing
convective development over the Tennessee valley and southern
Appalachians. Strong upper jet/short-wave over the Ohio valley
into the mid-Atlantic states will produce a line of storms that
will move southeast toward southwest Virginia by 06-09Z Monday.
Due to loss of upper dynamics and limited instability this line
will weaken considerably with only scattered showers anticipated.

Scattered showers with limited QPF is expected early Monday 
morning mainly north of interstate 40. Ensemble means are less
than one-tenth inch.

For the latter half of Monday through Thursday, surface ridging 
and dry northwest flow aloft will be the main weather story. Main 
concern will be the low afternoon relative humidity in the 
20s/30s. Besides some light showers across southeast Tennessee 
Wednesday, mostly dry conditions with near seasonal to above 
normal temperatures anticipated. Again, ensemble QPF means are 
less than one-tenth inch.

For Friday, ensemble cluster show a strong jet moving into the
Ohio and northern Tennessee valley. The upper level dynamics
weaken as the system moves into the region. Also, return moisture
from the Gulf is limited due to persistent surface ridging into
the Gulf coast states. Scattered showers are expected but mainly
north of interstate 40.

Surface ridging and dry northwest flow aloft returns for next
weekend. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Increasingly breezy southwesterly winds and mostly clear
conditions are expected for the rest of the afternoon and into the
evening. The strongest winds will be at TYS and TRI where frequent 
gusts over 20 kts are expected. For CHA, these winds will be more
southerly and not quite as strong. Overnight, these winds will
continue at TYS and TRI with CHA seeing a notable decrease.
Because of this trend, LLWS was included as winds a few thousand
feet up will reach 40 kts. Remnants from earlier storms will move
into northeastern portions of the area in the morning as showers.
Most places will stay dry, but MVFR ceilings are forecast at all
sites. Winds will also shift to more northerly. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             61  72  45  68 /  10   0   0  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  57  66  41  66 /  20  10   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       56  65  41  66 /  30  10   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              53  62  35  64 /  60  20   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Monday for 
     Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky 
     Mountains.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


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