481 
FXUS64 KMRX 230636
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
236 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 216 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

- Cold frontal passage this morning, with scattered showers north 
  and some gusty winds in the mountains.
 
- Dry and cooler conditions are expected Monday, followed by a
  warming trend and returning rain chances late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

A cold front moving across the OH VAlley tonight will move across 
our area Monday morning, between 09Z and 15Z. There is currently a 
lot of convection along the front, but this is expected to decrease 
as it approaches our area. Dynamics with upper trough and jet will 
be mainly north of our area, and a line of weakening showers with a 
few elevated thunderstorms will move across southwest Virginia and 
northeast Tennessee. Only light amounts between a tenth and a 
quarter inch are expected. Mountains may see wind gusts near 40 mph 
at times tonight ahead of the front, which is covered by the Wind 
Advisory.

A colder air mass will build into the area behind the cold frontal 
passage. High pressure over the Great Lakes and OH Valley region 
will promote drier and seasonally cooler conditions through Tuesday. 
By Wednesday, broad ridging will expand from the southwest with high 
pressure shifting eastward, leading to a return of southerly flow 
and warming temperatures. The main concern midweek will be the low 
afternoon relative humidity in the 20s/30s. Besides some light 
showers across southeast Tennessee Wednesday, mostly dry conditions 
with near seasonal to above normal temperatures anticipated.

Rain chances return late in the week as a front crosses the TN/OH 
Valley region from north to south. The upper level dynamics weaken 
as the system moves into the region. Moisture from the Gulf is 
limited due to persistent E-W surface ridging across the Gulf coast 
states. Scattered showers are expected but mainly north of 
interstate 40. Surface ridging and dry northwest flow aloft returns 
for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 216 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

SWly flow will eventually turn N-NEly once the cold front to our
north passes. The line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to
be a lot weaker and really only clip NE of TYS. TRI the most
likely to see precipitation later this morning. There may be a
brief period this morning that TRI and TYS see MVFR CIG with the 
passage of the front. Winds will remain up until the latter half 
of the TAF period. Gusts near or above 20 KT possible. Gusts 
subside tonight as high pressure moves in. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  45  68  48 /   0   0  10  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  66  41  66  45 /  10   0   0  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       65  41  66  45 /  10   0   0  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              62  35  64  38 /  20   0   0  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for Blount Smoky 
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KS


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