ACUS02 KWNS 120613
SWODY2
SPC AC 120612

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce small to
marginally severe hail Friday evening into the overnight hours
across portions of western Texas into far southwest Oklahoma.

...Texas and Oklahoma...

A positive-tilt upper trough oriented from NV to just offshore from
southern CA/northwest Mexico Friday morning, will shift east through
the period, emerging over the central High Plains to southern
Rockies by Saturday morning. As this occurs, increasing
southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread TX and OK. Lee low
development over the southern High Plains will foster increasing
south/southeasterly low-level flow across OK/TX, and modest boundary
layer moisture will spread northwest across much of TX into OK.
Mainly 50s to near 60 F dewpoints are expected across
western/central TX into central OK. As cooling aloft ensues amid
moistening vertical thermodynamic profiles, modest destabilization
is expected across western TX and perhaps into southwest OK. MLCAPE
values are generally forecast in the 500-1000 J/kg range, with
weaker elevated instability expected with northeast extent into central OK.

Large-scale ascent will increase by late afternoon/early evening,
and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by 00z. With
temperatures warming into the 70s F across western TX, initial
convection may briefly be surface-based. However, with nocturnal
stabilization of the boundary-layer, convection will tend to become
elevated with time. Supercell wind profiles, characterized by
southeasterly low-level flow veering with height to southwesterly
flow in the mid/upper levels, will support storm organization.
Elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km, and steepening midlevel
lapse rates suggest isolated large hail will be the primary risk
with convection over western TX into far southwest OK, though a
couple of strong gusts also could accompany storms that are surface-based.

Storm coverage will increase through the evening with northeast
extent as a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet increases across TX/OK.
A strong storm or two could develop into central OK during the
nighttime hours and produce small hail, but weaker midlevel lapse
rates and MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg should temper the severe risk.

..Leitman.. 02/12/2026

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