FOUS30 KWBC 240622
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
222 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Mar 24 2026 - 12Z Wed Mar 25 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Mar 25 2026 - 12Z Thu Mar 26 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Mar 26 2026 - 12Z Fri Mar 27 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY...

A strong cold front will move southward across the Midwest Thursday
night. The front will run into a marginally unstable and warm air
mass, but with limited moisture with surface dew points on either
side of 60 degrees. Nonetheless, with some upper level support and
significant shear, organized thunderstorms are likely to form
Thursday evening. The storms could then train over many of the 
same areas that saw some heavy rain from a very similar-behaving
front yesterday. This is a lower-end Marginal Risk as upper level
support and instability will both not be quite as favorable to the
storms as yesterday. This will be somewhat offset by a bit wetter
soils by then than they were before yesterday's rainfall event. The
areas most likely to see an instance or two of flash flooding are
the urban centers. Should forecast rainfall decrease, which appears
possible, the Marginal may be able to be dropped with future
updates.


Wegman
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