916 
FXUS64 KMRX 241644
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1244 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1243 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

- Dry and mild conditions through Wednesday, followed by a warming
  trend and returning light rain chances late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Upper level pattern currently consists of ridging over the western 
CONUS and troughing over the eastern. An H85 high pressure center 
will slide across the southern Appalachian region as a weak vort max 
swings through the northern Great Lakes over the next 12 or so 
hours. High clouds will return for the AM, though, low RH throughout 
lower levels will hinder precip at the surface. Continued seasonal 
temperatures with clearing skies are expected this afternoon.

Mild temperatures and dry conditions continue Wednesday as the 
general synoptic pattern remains fairly persistent, with just minor 
fluctuations in the overall amplitude of the trough/ridge. 
Temperatures trend warmer among H5 height rises downstream of a PNW 
shortwave Thursday. A slight uptick can also be noted in westerly 
H85 flow Thursday. NBM promotes a dry forecast at this time, but 
cannot totally rule out low chances for light rain potentially 
making way into future forecasts.  

The aforementioned shortwave will continue eastward Friday, 
eventually promoting a cold front moving through the Ohio Valley and 
into the Tennessee Valley region late Friday. Current trends are for 
this to be a weak frontal passage being so far displaced from the 
parent low well off the Northeastern Seaboard. Drier and breezy 
conditions filter in behind the front on Saturday, which could pose 
heightened fire weather concerns for those that do not get rain 
Friday night(southern valley). Warming trend expected late weekend 
into the new work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Surface ridging and dry northwest flow aloft will keep conditions
VFR through the forecast period. Winds will generally be 10 knots
or lower.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             47  70  54  82 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  43  71  52  78 /   0   0   0  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       43  70  52  78 /   0   0   0  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              35  68  48  74 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


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