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QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Putnam


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026

...There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall Across Portions
of the Southern Plains on Friday...

Moist southerly flow from the Gulf will begin to increase across 
the Southern Plains during the day Friday and especially into the
evening/overnight hours as a southern-stream upper-trough 
approaches the region from the Southwest. This will help to 
reinforce a frontal boundary left from prior shortwave(s) passage 
with a roughly west or west-southwesterly axis from the western 
Ozarks through Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. The late arrival 
of an appreciable combination of increasing low level winds along 
the boundary and height falls from the approaching upper-trough 
should limit any storm development until after 00Z. The lack of 
particularly notable moisture (surface dewpoints less than 60) 
given that this will be day one of return flow as well as the onset
of night will lead to limited/elevated instability, with the 
chance that development could also be mostly north of the quasi- 
stationary boundary. Additionally, antecedent conditions are rather
dry suggesting initial rainfall would be mostly beneficial. 
Nevertheless, model guidance has been consistent in depicting the 
potential of locally heavy bouts of rainfall in the 2-2.5" range 
which, if realized, could lead to some isolated flooding concerns 
particularly for urban areas. 

Putnam


Day 3 
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026

...There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall from the ArkLaTex 
to Mid-South Saturday...

The upper-trough will fully emerge over the Southern Plains on 
Saturday and progress eastward towards the Lower Mississippi Valley
by Sunday morning. Consolidating/deepening surface low pressure 
will sweep eastward in tandem with an expected track based on the 
latest model guidance from the Red River Valley east-northeast 
through the Ozarks and into the Mid-South, with an eastward 
extending warm front and trailing cold front. A strengthening low 
level jet with an additional day of moist southerly return flow 
from the Gulf will help to better prime the warm sector with 
dewpoints into the 60s and some rather modest but relatively higher
instability in the 500 J/KG range. 

Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period in 
vicinity of the low and eastward along the warm front, roughly in 
the western Ozarks vicinity, with the potential for some lingering 
isolated flooding concerns. More potent thunderstorms capable of 
locally heavy rainfall are expected to develop with daytime heating
southwest along the trailing cold front through the ArkLaTex and 
into eastern Texas. Increasing wind fields aloft, deep-layer flow 
roughly parallel to the boundary, and eastward progression of the 
cold front will likely lead to a line of numerous, potentially 
organized thunderstorms with training potential, increasing the 
likelihood of some locally heavy totals. Additional storms may 
develop ahead of the surface low track in vicinity of the warm 
front helping to prime soils and increase totals. However, the 
front is expected to remain progressive, which will keep an upper 
limit on rainfall totals, particularly with southern extent. A 
Slight Risk has been maintained from the ArkLaTex northeast into 
the Mid-South roughly following the expected low track. While 
antecedent conditions are generally dry, a consensus of model 
guidance supports areal average rainfall in the 1.5-2" range, with 
locally heavier totals of 3-4", which could still lead to some 
scattered instances of flash flooding. The latest 00Z model 
guidance suggests the axis of heaviest rainfall is more likely on 
the southeastern side of the Slight Risk, but have avoided any 
significant adjustments for now, especially outside of the hi-res window.

Putnam
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